No one here has any idea what is going on behind the scenes, will there be a crash is not relevant, I've been having to speaking with third party funds and they are angry, they built up their processes and trading using non-transparent methods with investor capital, and now they are starting to see the fallback from it. So when I come along and point out they can't be non-transparent, such as running a prop firm pretending to be a hedge fund taking in investor capital while trying to pass off their liability to third party social type traders, they just go neanderthal because no one was ever supposed to find out. I think the main problem is they were 'allowed' to function and now they're not, the NAV whipsaws on the last one was spectacular due to their focusing on the fractional details and forgetting the big picture, making dollars obliterates saving pennies, who cares about the penny cost as long as it's under 20% profit. I know for a fact many funds are hemorrhaging capital this year, in the past years the first two quarters they made profit and last two quarters lost profit (typically the most volatile), mainly because their processes do not have institutional grade stability, which is what I use every day, this year the first two quarters they are 80% down, making the last two quarters intensely miserable for anyone who can't keep returns stable. Will that induce a crash, who cares as long as your returns profile is stable and you can buy low sell high because even more people than ever before will be liquidating at firesale, and the funny part is all those people can't believe there could be another way because they truly believe their way is sacrosanct.
I wouldn't say crash, but over-due for a pull back. The Nasdaq comp is seriously overbought, just a breath away from stupid overbought. I can tell you this, that in the last 5 years of keeping detailed data I keep, the market has never been this overbought.
The QQQ/NQ deviation from the 20 day MA is at a level that historical triggers an immediate & sharp correction with few exceptions. 5-6 stocks are carrying most of this rally, what could go wrong? There can be an exception like the rally off the Covid low when Powell began printing to infinity . Will this time be different?
They are printing over $170 billion per year in the form of interest on excess reserves. Unlike QE, it's a direct injection of cash with no offsetting asset swap. The more they hike, the more they print, and the bank bailout facilities will ofc become permanent. I'm a buyer with both hands on any meaningful correction.
%% OK; LOL that ''red flag'' technical pattern is called a bull market uptrend\no wonder BAC is below 200dma+ down YTD...............
Every time there is a triple or quad-witching hour, these silly news tid-bits pop up trying to grab headlines. Nothing has happened since the crash of 87' and while the witches (may) have had a possible part to play in that, most of the devastation was due to the result of portfolio insurance.
SPY Max-Pain was 441.00 today. Even though it closed lower that is where it traded the most:- No crash but ops exp certainly does matter.
There is an event in play for the indexes, we've been waiting the whole of this year for it to form, to time to in days is a bit excessive, patience is a virtue.
I'm kicking myself a little for not going short bigger on yesterday mornings open, (sqqq), when the RSI breached 80 on the qqq. Should have relied more on my data. Only once in the last 5 years, has a major ETF had a weekly closing RSI above 80, and that was SPY on August of 2020. Personally, I think that RSI indicators are a under utilized tool. Comagnum's post above, is a great point, and my data suggests that we could have weeks of selling. However, it will probably be tempered by the buy the dip, meme, reddit, and fomo crowd, which is why I didn't go all in short for a short term trade. Afterall, they're the ones who brought us to this dance. Have some fun Ken !!!! By the way, only SOXL & XLI, have fallen out of technically overbought conditions. QQQ, TQQQ, SPY, SPXL, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLG, and IYT are still technically, pretty overbought.