This is totally true! It's not what you see that nails you in the markets, it's what you DON'T see. So... look for what's not there and keep your eyes on what you don't see.
We're near the low of the trading range that has been in place since early this year. The range has had a slight downward bias, so IMO the most likely scenario is to make a new low by approx 10 points (which would take us down to about 1066), then rally back from there. A moderately bearish payrolls would do the trick nicely - scare weak longs out, then serious buyers step in and that's the low for the move. Anyway, I'll be bidding at and below 1070, then look to add if it starts to go my way. A move below 1060 would have me scaling out of my entry and waiting for the market to stabilise before re-entering.
There we go as I said....employment news gives us some action and a break of the May 12th LOD for the ES. We sure did get some action off that news and now we will have a wild day.
There was a 75% chance ( predicted by Fed Funds Futures ) for a 1/4 point increase in SEPTEMBER. Suffice to say that Fed Funds futures have plummeted, now only forecasting a 12% chance of an increase in SEPTEMBER. So much for Josh Bolten of the OMB and the Bush Administration's forecast of 4.7% GDP growth in the Second Half. Does anyone still want to continue to spend BILLIONS over in Iraq? We sure got some cheap oil now, don't we? 1050-1040 here we come in the week ahead. This number was horrible!