This is why most people lose money in the markets. They think they can predict the market but they're often wrong, as is the case yet again.
We still need tommorow's prices to close. At that point if we dont see negative progress I will agree this call was incorrect. We may potentially go retest but I dont think so. I think we test 1490 and then go higher. Oddly, "devi" chimes in after the market closes. If I had been right, would he have posted? Its survivorship bias of negativity. Lets see how we close tommorow, I'll gladly admit I am wrong if we see it push back thru 1530 and close there for a day or two. Otherwise I think we are heavily biased to testing out 1490. Regardless, the call was for today to be down or tommorow, so if we dont see the negative progress tommorow my call is clearly wrong.
My problem with my short position is that I am actually bullish NDX. I can't see how SPX and NDX can go in opposite directions. That is why I sold puts and am covering my stock as it goes up. I will cover everything if we go up more tomorrow.
Why cant you see the NDX and the SPX going in opposite directions? The $SPX is a value oriented index with an average P/E of about 17 where as the $NDX is a growth oriented index with a P/E of 24. The total market has a P/E of about 18. I am not bullish on the $SPX, but I am bullish on small/mid-cap growth stocks in general and the $NDX. The $SPX will chop, maybe go a little bit higher or go down, however, I would concentrate long positions on the real index which is the $NDX.
hi, i have to say my call was wrong. I was waiting for a larger pullback to get long and was only 10% long when the market took off. Undoubtedly, because of the negativity survivorship bias of this site, this post will come up again rather than my myriad of correct calls. In either case, congrats to all longs! (Since I'm essentially on the sideline)
Triple top on the SPY. Wait one or two more days. You might be rgith. When we saw a triple top on the Qs back in the start of the year, it resulted in disaster.