Just out of curiosity, has anybody forfeited or knows a friend that has forfeited a deposit on the purchase of a new home. If so, what are the amounts of the deposits that people are just letting go of ?
Anywhere for 2-10k forfeited depending on the area of the country. These are not exact figures, but my wife works for one of the largest hombuilders in mortgage banking. And yes the are increasing. She is changing loan programs to make sure they close. One guy just got 90k off a 600k house in the midwest. That wasn't in free tv's either that was outright cash off the top! They just fired 20 percent of their staff due to slowdowns. I am glad she made the cut.
Pulte. Their headquarters is about 3 miles from my house (Troy, Michigan). It is getting scary ugly in residential. The bubble has now shifted to commercial real estate, where valuations are far out of whack. We will see commercial REIT stress within the next 2-3 years.
Commercial Real Estate is still holding on, but thats next to go. I say earlier than 2-3 years. More like 12-18 months.
people where i live (costa rica) are still buying like crazy. land, houses, anything they can get their hands on. there are more realtors than people. They are naive enough to think it will never effect them. I spoke with a guy i work with who said he thinks it will go on another 5 years....my response was that 5 more months would surprise me. i am waiting for epople to get themselves upside down and in a very tight spot before i buy. I expect to be able to pick up real bargains form some very deperate people in 3-5 years.
TOL will hit single digits. US national median house prices will experience their first decline since the Great Depression. Leveraged speculators will get wiped out, and in the bubble areas, average time to sale will rise to 4-6 months at the worst point in the decline. I'd expect it will take another 2-3 years for the worst to be done with. There - that's what you call a prediction. If I'm wrong, anyone can link to this post and call me on it. Unlike some people on here, I won't try and pretend I said anything different. I was bearish one year ago, I'm bearish now, and I'll continue to be bearish until real estate & the related stocks show action consistent with that which has occured during the end of bear markets in other financial assets. I.e. 90-99% stock price falls, widespread defaults, fraud revelations, speculators totally wiped out, the most die-hard longs either giving up or in bankruptcy hearings, and yet the market price staying resilient in the face of all this bad news, then beginning to rise when least expected. That is how bear markets end, with everyone desperate to get out at any price, or giving up totally - not with everyone saying "It's too late to sell" and still looking to play the long side.
That is because most people do not know how to trade a prediction, even if they are 100% right about it.