...And he was looking to slip the last arm into his bear suit today, to go from a 75% short conviction to a potential 100% short conviction. Who knows...
can't figure him out... maybe he's using his website to manipulate. But he sounds sincere. Do you have an opinion on taking a short?! All I'm hearing/readng is bad economic and company news... and April is historically a down month into 4/15th. I'm adding cash to my account today and Monday... and holding back some powder looking to trade the down move with size. I have not traded much size on the way up, and thus made less than many likely made; but this entire scenario has me confused and now with these bigs moves each day I wonder if we are back in the bubble? Regards, Ice
Well, Todo wasn't the only one to completely fight this move. The 2002 Market Timer of the Year, Michael Gibbons, called for a price collapse this week. He was calling for a crash at SP 790 and kept fighting the rally. He had been hot on all of last year calling almost all the trading tops and bottoms of last year. This is what happens, he wiped out almost 5 months of trading performance. However, these guys are pros, so bash them as much as you want. They have drawdowns like everyone else. They could very well make up their equity and then some in the near future. Who knows...
His service is pricey. (2000 for 6 months) But how good are his calls and whats his timeframe. I read somewher that Bob Brinker called the bottom to the day. Thanks Chip
Out of boredom, I will read Toddo's commentary on the markets...More than anything I just get a kick out of his complete "randomness" and don't really follow his directional calls much cause I never like to follow anyone else's opinion of the market...His recent bearishness is so reminiscent of last October-November, when he was similarly scaling short into that massive move from October 10th-Dec 1st...The inconsistency I find with it is that it would be very difficult to scale into a position across 100 pt S&P moves and still maintain a favorable cost basis...He does not ever completely specify his exact strategy, only giving hints that he is initiating positions and scaling those positions with SPX options...I never have read whether he is short or long premium, but I usually get the idea that he might be doing a combination of both...Obviously, strike selection is crucial for his 4 scale technique, but I can't think on any strike that would not have blown up in his face this past week with a run this strong...So, I have to ask myself how his scale can still have any edge after this much adverse movement against his first 3 scales...
There's no doubt that he was on the wrong side this past week. The point he was making with his options was that it was "defined risk" (limited loss via puts) and that they were out a few months hopefully giving him enough time as he always says his problem is one of "timing." I didn't remember that he was short during that Oct-Dec run last year. As a subscriber, that's troubling as he's made the same mistake twice then. Anyways, I think Tony Dwyer is excellent. And maybe the most benefial of Todo's writing is that he often writes about the hedge fund and macro flow as he's got connections. His timing might not be as good as I thought I guess...
The lawyers, I am sure, have told Todd he would be liable for what he writes, so he cautions that he is not recommending but enlightening. OK, that leaves the reader/subscriber with some very vague and somewhat fuzzy explanations of his positions since Minyanville started. I don't want to be told to buy/sell at X or that it is time to buy/sell stock ABC. And as far as being right at every market juncture, well, no one is, but what action did he take at his stop point? What exactly was his "defined risk"? Was he long more stock than puts? What was the mix and how did he trade the position when the market started in the opposite direction? If he didn't want to use actual stocks and puts he was trading he could have used examples like XYZ stock etc. His background is at the derivative desk of a major firm and he had written about and gave examples of that style trading in the past and what he needs to do again. The "university" may provide the examples, I just wish he would have written like he did before.
Just checked his website this week, and it seems that he has removed the above performance chart from the public, though he's left his futures chart up which rebounded somewhat. Maybe he's just updating it...maybe he's hiding the big ugly...
Just curious how Toddo handled these past few days of trading (especially today). Anyone care to clue us in? TIA