Today's Most Crowded Trades ????

1) Short the US Dollar....


2) Long US Stocks...


3) Long Gold ....


4) Short US Govts....


5) Long Oil....


and/or


?????

 

correct but it hasn't hurt those as that trend has been going on for 5 months straight. the short $ has to be the most crowded trade in history.

 

There are still plenty of skeptics who are either calling the top or staying on the sidelines. Until the majority are worshipping the bull, stocks could have plenty more room to the upside.

 

"the market can stay irrational alot longer than u can stay solvent."

 

Never too crowded when the talking heads on cnbc keep saying it's crowded.

 

I assume that 90% + on ET are looking to ride waves and pay attention to whatever they use to tell them the flow is changing.

Who cares what is crowded? The reason these markets are moving is that there is money behind them.

It is PROFOUNDLY not your job to figure out how far irrational (or rational) exhuberance (SP) will run. If you are trading of a daily or weekly chart and you are holding for weeks or months it is your job to ride the bull, be ever cautious and probably give a bit (maybe as much 15%) back at the end of the game.

No one knows how far these momentum plays carry but everyone knows that if you are a momentum player your greatest risk is cashing in too soon. When there's a dip and the bounce sucks, put your trades under a microscope. In the meantime stay on the bull for the entire eight seconds (or the whole nine yards) and a bit more.

I'm pretty new at this but guys, c'mon. It ain't about picking the top. It's about PERCEIVING that it was the top after the bounce back anemic rally or two and then closing it all out at the market with ZERO HESITATION.

It's about being vigilant as you look at recent reality through the rear view mirror. It is not looking through the wind shield and thinking you can guess about what is around the next bend.

Personally, I am flat at days end or, more accurately, I am long the dollar balances in my account.

If your positions are properly sized (and they should be) you longer term players are sitting strong no matter what happens. Relax ... enjoy the scenery. Revel in the fact that those of us trading in very short time frames are envious ... 'cause we are!