Well the chief currency strategist at oz commonwealth bank says he has a feeling the ecb will hike today sending euro/usd to 122. I know jpmorgan, ubs and deutsche have all said a hike in dec and "officials" have said the bank will move before february. Is anyone else of the opinion that if trichet is not extremely hawkish then the bund, bobl euribor will just rally up through the conference. There seems to be a lot of expectation priced in. I know HVB group have been recommending to buy bunds before the meeting for this reason. I see belgium and the netherlands have had shrinking cpi data in the past two weeks but they're only small fish. I'd interested to hear anyone else's views/predictions
Been hearing a lot of people now saying to be long into this conference, just like I've been hearing people trying to pick bottoms the last couple of days. The problem is once everyone is thinking the same think it won't happen - that's my worry now as I had the same feeling this morning in the shower - being long into the conference - now I've heard so many people saying the same I'm pretty sure I won't be. Oh and if you feel they may raise, you can get odds of 11-1 on betfair lol!
Well at least you weren't trying to pick bottoms in the shower! If there are a lot of longs in and he is more dovish than expected, then there shouldn't be instant profit taking offloading into locals as the markets haven't bounced enough yet for any trade to be decently onside. HVB started to build longs for this 3/4 point higher than present in the bund. I reckon they'd just average and drive it up. Still stick a few hundred lot stops in on the downside and hold out for the 11/1 hike! Ride that baby
I have my best thoughts in the shower! Who knows what will happen - go with the flow I guess. On other things - you still know anyone in Oman? Sister was back there a few months ago - said it had changed massively.
Can't help but think not quite what people had in mind though, 19 tick squeeze - wooooooowwwwwwww. And then back to the selling.