If you can get a "few tick" slippage on the payroll number, please give me the name and contact number of your broker.
You're on. With every1 predicting a rate rise next year, I'll stay in the camp that forecasts flat to lower rates for a few years more.
Are the electronic bond contracts at cbot still a/c/e or has that been replaced by ecbot or is that something else? I noticed that IB doesn't mention ecbot but stills lists the bonds and notes as ACE.
I have simple (maybe too simple) question. If interest rates rise, what will happen to the 10 year note (ZN)? Does it "have" to go down, or can it go up as rates rise? Sort of like the "good earnings" phenomenon in stocks. If the earnings are good, but not good enough, the stock tanks. I have been comparing comments with the activity of bonds and noticed that the recent rally (early-mid november) was explained by "worries about the market" Strange indeed
Bonds don't switch till the first of the year. The change is transparent to non-direct users. It's not a new exchange. Just a new platform. The CBOT's deal with LIFFE is much like the old deal with Eurex...not an equity partnership, but merely a licensing agreement in which the Board uses the other exchanges software.
You must first define "interest rates." When the 10 year goes down in price it's implied yield goes up. That does not mean that just because the Federal Reserve raises the discount rate or the funds target, that yield's of longer duration securities must rise. First of all the market attempts to "price in" it's expectation of further Fed action. For instance shorter maturity's are discounted in price with the notion that the Fed will aggressively tighten in 2004. If the Fed does not tighten then shorter maturity's will skyrocket in price (yield's falling), while longer duration issues will respond less favorably. A rule of thumb is that shorter maturity's trade at higher yield volatility than longer issues during Fed policy cycles, and the long end trades at higher vol. during transitional periods.
Won't the dollar eventually sink these bonds? Shouldn't rates be higher as the dollar tanks? Could sink stocks too i guess. Uh oh Lights out? Opinions please.
Cheaper dollar makes it cheaper to buy bonds for foreign investors, same goes for stocks IMO. Bad economy related news bring bonds higher, Great economy keeps bonds at or below premium . Week dollar is not necessarily a bad thing . Walter
Thanks for the info regarding bonds. By interest rates, I mean fed tightening. So, I guess eventual tightening is priced into the 10 year note today? It all depends on when and how much?