supposedly there was an erroneous order in the bond that pushed it down so far and fast. If you compare the 10 and 5yr charts to the bond, the bonds drop was about 3x as far as the others, even when considering that the bond moves much faster than the other two
So order was invalid?... Are such sick moves common to bonds (10:00 AM Eastern)? Let's say that people had sell limit orders in that area - do you think all of them got executed? Trying to gauge ability of bonds to move fast w/o loosing liquidity....
I thought it was probably because of some good comments about the economy from Fed Gov. Bernanke speaking. No? 12:45 PM ET : Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke to speak about the U.S. economy and monetary policy, to the South Carolina Association of Investment Professionals, in Columbia, South Carolina. Audience Q&A expected .
Is anyone familiar with which firms will be offering access to the Eurex bond/note trading starting next week? Trading begins Sunday night on this new exchange which should be a real threat to the CBOT in the interest rate markets. The firm I am with will not yet have access to Eurex for a few weeks (months?). Which retail firms will be up and running next week? IB? other? Just curious. Thanks, -Eric
Bernanke spoke today and the order that we were talking about was on Wednesday right before the non-manufacturing ISM number was released
Shouldn't they be tanking with all this growth and optimism? Fed governor just hinted at some job growth the day before the report and nada in the Bonds.. 1/2 pt that's all. What's the message, bonds forcasting maybe a flight to quality thing?? Shouldn't the lower productivity numbers be really bearish along with the recent factory / michigan numbers? Didn't money supply just expand,.... Dollar tanking What are the bullish arguments??
Opps. Sorry, I just read the last few posts and thought everyone was talking about that dive the bonds took after lunch today. Just ignore my comments.
I think interest rates remain low because we have been experiencing economic growth without as of yet, inflationary signs in the data. The bond market is most sensitive to inflation and the Feds action to combat it; with the only 1k non-farm payrolls added for Dec, this kept the bid alive as expectations as to a Fed tightening were pushed further in the future. However, tomorrow is the Employment report for January which will have huge market moving potential. If we get some huge nonfarm number like over 200k added or so then watch out. Also, technically, the 10yr yield is still in a longterm downtrend starting in early 2000. It has yet to break this trend. I hear all this talk and print that yields are going to rise this year. Well, maybe but we need some more signs of overheating in the economy and we need a breakout of this multi year downtrend!
10-Year yield back to 4.08 And $56 Billion is waiting in the wings in the Treasury Auction . . . Interesting.