I hate having to be on the long side when the market starts getting into retracement mode. I know for most it doesn't make sense, but I've just always had this posture that I only take the side of the major trend. That's not to say that I haven't made exceptions from time to time. Thankfully, I've been able to be profitable this past week, but it sure ain't easy. I'm betting on the market rallying above today's close during the day session, but no guarantees other than that. It could still continue to be a stinker. I've attached tomorrow's price target chart, again always showing both directions, to be refined in the morning.
It was worth a try; I took a long after the close hoping for some upside action but stopped out at breakeven. Right now the low of 1159.25 is/was very close to the cash low target of 1159.97. A 10% retrace for the whole bull move is 1164.45 cash and 38% from the Feb low is 1152.79.
Internals based on opens actually not so bad; I've actually seen my numbers go slightly positive already at the open. Unfortunately, fear is the dominant factor at the moment. My strength number based on closes has only hit -40% which is normal, and the low based on opens has been only -15% and is currently in the plus column; compare that to yesterday which hit -84% based on previous day's close and -87% based on yesterday's opens. Without going into details as to the construction of the numbers, anything between plus or minus 40% is normal and should indicate that volatility and price direction should be modest. This study has been very constent for me over the years in that, once the opening range is established, within the first 15 to 20 minutes, the +/- 40% range typically holds. The only thing that breaks that range is significant unexpected news during the trading day or stupid fear, which is what we're experiencing unfortunately. Attached is a pic of yesterday's numbers and the beginning of today. The top and bottom half of the screen is the same calc, but the top half is based on each stock within the Dow relative to yesterday's close and the bottom half based on their respective strength to today's open. I calc each stock, give its prorated value and get a composite number.
Attached is pic of today's action in relation to targets. Internals are still decent; I'll attach the strength pic in a second post below.
If the stats are in your favor, taking a hit now and again is worth it. My "buy the close if low extreme is exceeded" did work today, but not by much. It was in the money three times today, but barely, only by a couple points. I'm using the 4 pm ET close; if the futures 4:15 close is at or better than the price at 4, then I'm buying, as my low target was taken out; only by a little, but I'm sticking with it. This is NOT a recommendation, as I'm willing to risk my own $$ on new contrivances, but not yours. Glad you had a good day. Tomorrow, Thur, target pic is attached.
I actually came out of that pretty unscathed yesterday; actually had the bottom three prices nailed before this ridiculous debacle. They'd better get this crap straightened out. For whatever it's worth, today's high/low range is 1114.04/1145. There are no mid range prices; everything gets compressed to the extremes.
My hi/low targets aren't worth a hellovalot in this environment. My strength number has ranged only to the +40% level on the high side and has hit into the -90% at that 10:30 ET dive; still too indecisive. I notice that most of the range since that time has been trading squarely around the low 114 low target. If you're right on the 1120, particularly finishing on an up move to the closing half hour, that would at least be encouraging. We'll see.