Averaging down? You didnt read the start of this thread, did you. I was biased SHORT and have since mid July swung LONG. Your analysis on oil that you paint is relevant and that is indeed a possibilty. However, the way I see it is that between now and the end of Summer, crude oil will continue to weaken and eventually bounce around the $95 mark. How high on the bounce? Likely back to $120 levels again until this administration is out the door. Notice that I am predicting a weaker lower high like we see in so many bubbles. I look to an overall downward bias as demand actually weakens as societies learn their lesson and spur more towards alternative energy sources. US car manufacturers will meet growing consumer demand for hybrids. If they don't they will be looking like the Chrysler of old and waiting for the Lee Iococcas of the world to step in at the helm. Gasoline prices will likely hover around the $3.75 mark at the end of Summer and by 2010 stabilize at around $2.80/gallon.
Yes dumbasses. My intermediate term run is underway. Bears are in denial and getting pounded. Get those butt plugs out and go with the flow or you will see much pain and loss in capital. LONG IS NOT WRONG.