Today sucks! 08-09-2007

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by myminitrading, Aug 9, 2007.

  1. you gotta PAY me to be nice.

    :)
     
    #41     Aug 11, 2007
  2. tr51

    tr51

    Austin
    why did you stop trading the ER2. I still find it to be more trendy than the ES although trading more than 5 to 10 cts begs for slippage.
    BTW - I always enjoy your posts
     
    #42     Aug 12, 2007
  3. Greater trading range for one.
     
    #43     Aug 12, 2007
  4. <i>"Austin, why did you stop trading the ER2? I still find it to be more trendy than the ES although trading more than 5 to 10 cts begs for slippage"</i>

    The only advantage ER had over ES for me was $$ range of swings. Today that relationship is evident, with ES in a 10pt range ($500 per contract) and ER in a 20pt ($2,000 per contract) range. The comparable distance between swings gives the ER more potential bang-fer-buck.

    However, the ER tends to be spiky. It will frequently come back and whip out an otherwise perfect trade. That's the tradeoff for working a contract with higher volatility than others.

    For myself, I need to enter 10 - 100 contracts and not suck in my breath every time the fill comes back. Fills on 10 - 20 ER contracts has always been an adventure, but these days can be horrible.

    *

    As for capturing bid/ask spread, entering on extreme ticks, etc I agree the ES doesn't offer that. But, with historically normal VIX levels now rather than decades' low volatility which is dead & gone, who needs to be so pinpoint precise?

    Markets are tossing around $500 per contract ES/YM swings like condoms at a frat-house keg party. Who in their right mind is trying to micro-scalp $25 blips when crystal clear $100 ~ $200 per contract swings come along oh, about twenty times per session?
     
    #44     Aug 13, 2007
  5. i actually agree that GIVEN the **current** market environment - it matters much less, since we are routinely getting much more extensive intraday swings ... plays where i would scale +6 +10 +15 are now netting +12 +18 +30

    so, in that regards, the advantage of YM over ES (the spread and 10 vs. 4 increments for equivalent moves) are LESS important.

    of course, this volatility is exactly that - the CURRENT market environment.

    frankyl, i've made more $$$ the last 3 weeks than i made previously the entire year. it is PHENOMENALLY tradeable.

    of course, CURRENT =/= permanent.

    given that the market cycles in volatility, the YM overall is superior to ES. but i will agree that right now, there are arguments for ES over YM that are more compelling than usual.

    heck, i've been enjoying scalping QID and DXD intraday which says a lot about the volatility.
     
    #45     Aug 13, 2007