The truth of the futures market is that at any given time half the people are wrong. I agree that there are lots of things that could go wrong but Im looking for longs until I see some evidence to the contrary.
I'm as much of a long term bear as anyone, but this is getting silly. So while I am cautiously buying some bargains in energies, I'm going long the index. God help me, as I may well be a good negative indicator in this respect. Expect to exit in February-March. Want to see what capital inflows are in Nov-Jan this year from the lumpeninvestoriat.
LOL. that's fine, just keep shifting you window of resistence higher...... eventually you will be right.
The markets will fall, you can count on it. Remember in April and MAy when the markets were in complete rally mode, I heard 12,000 about 7436 times that month....I remember it clearly. IT came, the big selloff. Everyone here remembers it. I was shocked when I saw down day after down day like I am now with new highs on a daily basis. Eventually it will come to an end. Look back to Jan 14 2000 after we touched highs, the market tanked over 1000 points in less than a month. The past doesnt mean much but anything is possible.
yes it will happen eventually, that is obvious. it will not happen soon sans an act of satan. I can put it better in ET-speak: "We are in an intermediate term uptrend - intermediate as in several months."
When I comment that the market seems delusional it's meant in reference to world conditons and also national economic conditions that may eventually play out. It doesn't mean I'm calling a top , although the indexes do seem a bit toppy. I just trade what I see which these days has been buy dips not try to short rallies. That strategy worked a month or two ago. We're obviously in an uptrend. I don't try to anticipate tops or bottoms. I just pay attention to how it's playing out and look for the conditions that most effect whatever I'm trading. When the trend changes due to whatever, if you're paying attention and are willing to see this with "new" eyes and not cling to what has been happening lately, you'll see it and can trade accordingly.