Remember when the markets were selling off and everyday there would be selloff after selloff after selloff, I was a bull at that time and thought there has to be a bottom somewhere. Well there was and everything became better again. It was oversold and bargains were just screaming to be bought. Well fast forward 4 months later and the opposite looks true now, overbought, overbought, overbought. If the bulls were crying about oversold conditions at DOW 10700-11k then bears could start whining at dow 12,000. There are such things as overbought conditions just like there are oversold conditions. My prediction DOW 11500 by November 17th NDX 100 goes to 1615-1625 area around November 13th-17th timeframe. 1315 on the S & P I think a 5% pullback from here is not out of question, I cannot see this market going any higher than 12250 without a 2-3% pullback. The higher we go without a pullback the worse the drop!!
Why doesn't someone do something brave and heroic.......errrrrr......like go long. LOL! It's interesting how being bearish is so in vogue here. Some might even start to wonder if any of these "Elite" traders make money at all? Guess its better to look cool on the public Internet than be privately profitable. LMFAO.
The day you see a TRIPLE DIGIT GAIN on the dow or a 1-2% gain on the major averages and see it drop like a rock is the day you know the rally is over.....
ER2 seems totally delusional. LOL It is like 1999. I'll have to get out one of my 1999 CNBC videos which I actually do have. LOL In 1999 I picked out a portfolio of 20 stocks on Jan. 1. By the end of the year without any trades they were up 278%. LOL. Unfortunately I didn't actually invest in all of them but was just screwing around to see how I could do. The only stock that was down for the year was Earthlink.
If this was a parabolic move I would look for it to end sooner than later, but this is not a parabolic move. It has been a slow steady climb for the last three years. Why do so many people think its going to suddenly reverse without a major event of some kind? If and when it ends I would think it would be gradual barring another terrorist attack.
1. the last several months have move REALLY quickly in a tight channel 2. October 3. hawkisk comments 4. Draw a channel (trend line top and bottom on the 1 year chart) and you will see that the SPX is at the VERY top of that channel today and has decent potential to fall for about a month. they dont move up forever. The moment it break a trend line i am short SPY and the QQQQ.
Right, look at a three year chart of the SPX. We are smack against the upper trend line. We could ride it higher, but probabilities would have to say we drop back to the middle of the channel at least in the short term.
there are plenty of factors I see ahead that can keep this market down. My #1 reason is the housing sector. Its going to fall hard and a possible recession could take place by second half of 2007. Seems right now there isnt a care in the world. Everything seems just fine as the markets head to fresh highs.