Maybe by you but I'd wager Nassim Taleb would not see this unrest as an unforeseen outlier. Plenty warned of it - most notably the British Diplomatic Service were quite open and strident in their warnings to mainland China.
Also, not sure if you guys are on Reddit but a large (?) stake was purchased by the Chinese recently. Not soon after: 1. Quarantine of the_donald subreddit 2. No HK news on the front page What is on the front page? - Rodents - MASS SHOOTING NRA IS RUSSIAN PUPPET - Puppies Basically, the Chinese are executing a vote swinging machine.
And a good day for US consumers. China is subsidizing our consumers and help pays for our budget deficit through Trump's tariff. Another way to look at this: If Trump uses the tariff to pay our farmers, then we will get some free food which we can ship to Africa or where ever the world needs free food.
Big thumbs down on this post. Aside from the unwarranted and unnecessary personal attack, your use of a couple of years' per capita GDP as support for a non-argument is clear indication that you know far less about the GDP, economics, and current affairs than you think you do. What about the riots in Hong Kong? Tempest in a teacup in the big scheme of things. No revolution is going to come out of it, no matter how much support and dark money the US and the UK would care to throw at it behind the scene. Wanna bet? By the way, National Interest is a known deep state propaganda outlet where over 80%+ of the writers are morons and 95% of the articles are radioactive junk. (Personal experience since 1999.) Your hyperbole about independence for Hong Kong and the end of Communism in China is, sorry, simply laughable. Many in Hong Kong have a negative view of mainland China. That's been the case for decades. However, they also happen to be Chinese with roots and extended family members across the border. Bilateral trade between Hong Kong & China is substantial - on a par with the US and Japan. If you think that Hong Kongers (99% Chinese) would throw away everything over an extradition bill, then I have a few World Trade Center Towers in New York to sell you. You actually believe that stuff? Did you actually think it over, as a trader or investor?? Trump is lying through his teeth when he says China is paying for the tariffs, but he is a politician. You are a trader / investor - swallow Trump's horse manure at your own peril.
That isn't a black swan. Black swan is inherently hidden and when it appears it happens instantly, right away. Our knowledge of the developments there and us predicting right now that it can turn out to become a black swan disqualifies it as a black swan event. Makes sense?
You do realize we have put tariffs on China ..... and China has put tariffs on us? Please stop believing the tRump nonsense only China is paying. Even Larry Kudlow admits it as much.