Today and last Firday's ES action

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by daydreaming, Jul 29, 2003.

  1. Today and last Friday's ES action surprises me a lot. Last Friday ES broke Thursday low and then reversed closing the day and the week higher. Perhaps, a short squeeze, light volume, summer Friday afternoon. Today, ES opened and traded South. After a weak consumer confidence reading, ES broke down. Again, ES found support at the 980 and something level and reversed trading higher to test today's high and even trade positive on the day. Do these reversals have any specific names? Any specific pattern I'm not aware of? Any advise?
  2. m_c_a98


    I'd call it 'watch the bouncing ball', 'ping pong', ... etc. as we traders line are already fat pockets....... I prefer days like this with clear Wide ranges..
  3. Yep...lot of $ to be made today. Should have woken up this morning :(

    -FastTrader :mad:
  4. dbphoenix


    If you're surprised, then you were most likely expecting something. When you expect something, you are less likely to be open to a variety of possibilities.

    The ES was/is in the middle of a range. Therefore, the probabilities of its going either way are just about equal. The CC number was the news event to move it. I don't know what your particular strategy is, but it should not have been too difficult to catch the bulk of the move down.

    As for the reversal, that's an optional extra. There was substantial support around 980, which you could have bought, or you could have bought the higher low. Or you could have picked up the trend and taken a few points before it reached the end of its run.

    Advice? Plan for every reasonable contingency. Then execute whatever plan is most appropriate at the time.
  5. m_c_a98


    Nice post.
  6. There were probably dozens of strategies out there with names used by traders to catch those reversals...

    One name that I know for fact was being used is Divergence.

    There was a very nice Bullish Divergence Reversal signal off that July 25th Friday intraday low in the ES...

    There was a very nice Bearish Divergence Reversal signal today July 29th Tuesday that signaled the failure of that counter-thrust that occurred in the first 5mins after the Open on the all session chart in the ES...

    Different types of Divergence signals.

    My advice...use search menu to learn all you can about Divergence signals...

    there's no one way...many types...just find something your comfortable with that fits your trading methodology.

    P.S. Trading the Open (the first hour especially when there's a key economic report in the first hour) is not recommended for beginners...

    often called amatuer hour...a time when veteran traders takes money from newbie traders.

  7. bubba7


    You have reached a nice place.

    It is apparent you are not tied to edges and set ups.

    That open a huge door for you to take advantage of doing continuous trading through each day.

    The fact that Monday was not a surprise is good to hear too because it was the type of day that worked for continuous traders as well.

    Phoenix points outthat he is constantly vigilant and always pulls out the necessary thing to cover the situation he sees. He noted a few. Continuous traders are usually "pushed" along by edge and set up people and also people who have a play for various recognizable occasions.

    fore going having to come up with edges, set ups and huge quivers for many occasions is a good place to go to.

    The "divergence" post was one where a specific signal from any of a variety of indicators or a price/indicator comparison could be used.

    I have found that the path to continuous trading is an easy one that just requires understanding how to synthesize market information.

    An example may be made from the post you made and the other descriptive posts. Try logging what you see along with the events that a couple of indicators signal to you. After 20 years (I'll save you the time here), you will notice that these journalling are giving you lists of events. One leads to another.

    If you want to keep from being bored, you can lay out the names (by gluing each name) on a huge blank wall map. What happens is that as you go along year after year you notice that you are gluing stuff on top of former paths. It gets to look topographical.

    I divided my wall map into horizontal strips to denote time intervals- short at top and long at bottom and I only put the names into the strip that had the duration of the name. Fast names in fast strips.

    If something started over I just drew a line back to the beginning name of all the names in the row.

    Breakout is a name that starts a lot of rows.

    Once you get your wall chart you find out that the market is always on it somewhere and it's telling you what to see next.

    For ES mini, on monday there were seven trades. Four were 5 pointers and three were over 2 points each. The day's range, someone said, was the oneof the shortest H/L's for the year. they were looking it all up today.

    You can use the H/L of 8.3 that's 8.75 in decimal point talk. take the 26 points on the seven trades and divide it by the H/L (8.75) to get an idea of how continuous trading works for Monday. It comes out to 2.97 so we can round it to a simple # for roughing out our performance potential for continuous trading. It's about 3x the H/L range for a day.

    I found that getting the price names was easy and so were the volume names. The ones that help the most are indicator signal names. i pick indicators that have lots and losts of signal names that I can wedge in on the wall map.

    My advise:

    1. get some indicators.

    2. get a wall map and some paper and glue.

    3. make a map to find out where you and the market are all the time.

    4. trade continuously.

    It all is a very pleasant thing to be doing.
  8. Tea


    Nothing wrong with standing aside if the market is not trending or making sense to you.
  9. These are all great replies I can elaborate on. I thought somebody was going to tell me to improve my grammar and spelling skills before trading ES for the mistakes in the subject line!


    still daydreaming
  10. bubba7


    you can glance at a 5 min chart with my layout as below. since I know the map, I just cruise. see how i begin. i listed some key names for the rest of the day.

    5 min chart:

    gap open. MACD on neutral, STOC on neutral, vol ume 10k.

    third bar; volume up , 12k, MACD falling, red bar, STOC div off 50%going down. sync is in.

    fifth bar: black, volume up 14k, MACD hist at.4, div, STOC on 20 and div. Channel is a tape on 5 min: draw lines. Points 1,2,3.

    All of this means enter short, probably between third and fifth bar. Not by third but maybe fourth and cetainly by the fifth (9:54).

    My MACD is 5,13,6 and my two STOCS are 14,1,3, and 5,2,3 (Pring ref)

    Thats 22 things to paste in 24 minutes.

    bar 7: BO down. close on low. vol ume 2x normal 40KMACD rapid div. STOCs "oversold" (under 20).

    Othersignificant items:

    MACD MAX, convergence,Xover,DIV, xover neutral.

    Vol did: declining, VDU, BO

    STOCs did: breakouts into center, div, convergence, entwined. centered on 50.

    to day turned out to be three trades. short,reversal to long, reversal to short, exit to sidelines. 10, 10, 8 in points.
    #10     Jul 29, 2003