Greenspandex's notes for his speech get released (bloomberg ect) right before he starts speaking, then he gives that speech, and then it is followd up with Q&A. So no conspiracy, I guess that is unless you do not have a realtime news service (CNBC does not count although some big equity day trading firm used to think different ).
Band squeeze, stoch was coming up on multi time frames, trend line break .. there doesn't need to be a reason. News only accentuates what the market was going to do anyways.
Backwardation in price and time ALWAYS produces that "surprising" vol . We have backwarded to fomc day where a top within normally ten days should occur at 10744 theoricaly (real today's high was 10746) more explanation below: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=28197&perpage=6&pagenumber=2 <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=429471>
Harrytrader, Everytime I read one of your posts I can't help but think of a passage I read in a book called House of Leaves; "[M]aze-traders, whose vision ahead and behind is severly constricted and fragmented, suffer confusion, whereas maze-viewers who see the pattern whole, from above or in a diagram, are dazzled by its complex artistry. What you see depends on where you stand, and thus, at one and the same time, labyrinths are single (there is one physical structure) and double: they simultaneaously incorporate order and disorder, clarity and confusion, unity and multiplicity, artistry and chaos. They may be percieved as a path (a linear but circuitous passage to a goal) or as a pattern (a complete symmetrical design)... Our perception of labyrinths is thus intrinsically unstable: change your perspective and the labyrinth seems to change." I guess what I am trying to say is -- do you actually trade on the hard right edge or are you content with matching your pretty colored charts and your Feynman formulae up after the fact as a purely aesthetic and intellectual excercise???
Thanks for the note, waggie, I'm feeling really embarrassed! I was expecting somebody to say something like this though. Geez, would be worth a Bloomy then after all. Had I held my long there, it would have paid for about 1/2 year of Bloomy subcription in a couple of mins. Cheers!
Fully agree... News only accentuates. Plus, it's usually already reflected in the price somehow. Although I don't use indicators (anymore), I know what you mean - apart from that, the base prior to breakout was a clear long setup anyway. Myself, I went long ES @42, and exited at 43.50, for a 1.5pt profit, instead of about 10pts. Don't ask me why, I'm still upset about it myself. But mind you, my trading plan just dictates me to take several 1-1.5pt trades during the day, so that's my usual target. Beyond that, hit rate drops drastically on ES. That said though, while on days like these I may not always cream it, I do very well every other day, and much better than all those "sit in a move" people. Several points every day is better than 20pts once in a while IMHO. So on reflection, I just followed my plan and shouldn't regret it. Cheers prox