To what extent is QE3 already priced in to the market?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by spanish89, Aug 22, 2011.

To what extent is QE3 already priced in to the market?

  1. Not yet, and so market going to rally 5-6% over next few days in anticipation.

    19 vote(s)
    48.7%
  2. Already priced in, so market going to fall more over next few days.

    20 vote(s)
    51.3%
  1. As the title says,
    to what extent has the market ALREADY priced in that this Friday Bernanke is going to announce QE3 starting in the immediate/very near future??
     
  2. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    I think the market is in for a big disappointment.
     
  3. S2007S

    S2007S

    Here is the newest article on QE3 from no other place than cnbc!

    How to Tell If QE3 Is Coming
    cnbc

    On Monday August 22, 2011, 10:50 am EDT

    Reading Fedspeak has never been easy, but these tips will help you weigh the odds of another round of pain for the dollar - er, quantitative easing.

    Want to figure out if QE3 is in the works? You could wait to hear what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has to say at Jackson Hole - or you could consider these clues.

    Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, looks for a convergence of indicators to figure out the odds of QE3. Right now, he told me, surveys of things like sentiment and consumer confidence are quite negative, but "real data like retail sales - those data are holding up better."

    For Chandler to view QE3 as likely, he says, "I would want to see that survey data as lead indicators for the real sector data. I would want to see the real sector data break down. We're not seeing that yet."

    Aroop Chatterjee, foreign exchange strategist at Barclays Capital, looks at long-term inflation expectations. He has compared five-year over five-year inflation expectations now and right before the beginning of QE2, and he says investors are now expecting about 2.5% inflation, compared to less than 2% before the last round of easing. Chatterjee argues that the dollar (New York Board of Trade (Futures): .DXY) has remained weak against the euro (Exchange: EUR=X)because investors are anticipating QE3, but he says, "I think the Fed would want to see more evidence of a real slowdown in the economy" before committing to another round.

    Others think QE3 could be with us already. "Holding the fed funds rate low to the middle of 2013 will require the Fed to buy quite a lot of bonds, and that is actually a de factor QE3," Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, told me.

    Swonk says that as recently as a few weeks ago, she would have put the odds of QE3 quite low. But the downward revision of GDP "lowered that threshold quite dramatically," she says, as did the wrangling over the debt ceiling and the euro zone's failure to resolve its issues.

    You have to decide for yourself whether QE3 is in the works. But at least now you can understand the Fedspeak.
     
  4. I think some people are going to be very disappointed. The Fed, in my estimation, has all but admitted he has no cards left to play (see his statements on leaving rates alone for the next two years). All this talk about QE3 appears to be a pipe dream.
     
  5. if market anticipates QE it should be rising, right?
    As we see heavy selling we can conclude the market 100% sure QE3 won't happen

    although if you look into bonds and gold you might think market 100% sure QE3 will happen

    who is dumb here?
     
  6. Ahhhh here comes that pricing-in... :)


    Now just need Dow to hit 11,326 today,
    and then again rise a few hundred points more tomorrow hopefully.
     
  7. Jackson Hole bounce continues but it's a counter trend rally as
    larger equity trends remain bearish and a USD rally lies ahead.
     
  8. rosy2

    rosy2

    you sound like a TV personality. what does this even mean? What market? up or down?
     
  9. S2007S

    S2007S

    Over 2/3 of people voting think BUBBLE ben bernanke doesnt do anything close to a QE3! Lets hope these people voting are right, the more QE the worse for the markets!



    Answer Fast Money's "Poll of the Day" now
    What do you think? We want to know!




    Do you expect Ben Bernanke to introduce plans for another round of quantitative easing when he speaks on Friday?
    Yes, he needs to do something to stabilize the economy and market.
    31%
    No, look at the mess he made last time.
    69%
    Total Votes: 723
    Not a Scientific Survey
    Results may not total 100% due to rounding
     

  10. Wtf is ''the trend''??! LOL

    Sorry but anyone who used that word as a noun is nothing more than a foolish newbie in the markets!! :D


    The ''trend'' is a VERB, not a noun.
    As the trend is nothing more than commentary based on what the market did during a certain timeframe,
    commentary that will be totally different depending on whatever timeframe you are speaking about at that moment.
     
    #10     Aug 23, 2011