What I think Quah was asking though is how do you know that the move would have been something you could successfully fade. In retrospect it was an order entry mistake, but how would the spike down look any different than that resulting from the president getting shot or a nuclear war breaking out in Pakistan?
i agree, but take a look at like 15s (15 second) charts or something like that. i will be the first to admit it is hindsight, looking back with such small period bars. however, at the time this happened, what time frame bars would you use?! obviously a move like that is going to happen fast, so you could have known to use a very small time period. even 1 min bars is too long for something like this.
ok, you have a point when you say nuke going off. but, what trader is going to live their life thinking every down move is a nuke going off? you can't live your life according to extraordinary occurences. now, that aside, as i said before, if you trade using just stochastics or something, you won't realize what's going on in higher time frames. i am telling you right now, there are ways of trading to help tell you what's going on. it was obvious to me that that move was way over done to the downside and would not stay there for long.
Of course! Right before it happened - in anticipation of the move, I would have switched to 15second charts or smaller - obviously! I see what you are saying now.
gordo your asking for answers from guy who thinks placing trades at random time intervals is the grail
10 yr note barely budged, until about 10 seconds after the bottom then they rallied a bit. But if any of the above were true the bond markets would have spiked in tandem. Also the fact that the NQ touched its low twice while the es never got close to 975 the second time also marked the move suspicious. When one market gets severely out of line with the others it's almost always due to a mistaken order or a large position being liquidated, either of which make for good entries. I wouldn't exactly say the move was over in a blink of an eye either, the market had made its top and fell steadily for 15 minutes before the big dip occurred. I think alot of traders lucky enough not to be long already and looking for an opportunity to get in, they got a nice head start in watching for a turn today, and the NQ market actually spent more time near the bottom than it did falling between 1237 and 1229. Sure, timing is luck 90% of the time, but with tight stops I'll bet many people would take this trade every single time they see it, and ask questions later.
It depends on what you were trying to get long. I tried like crazy to get long Qs. The bid was .65, the offer was 62(!), and the lasts kept going off at .54!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WTF am I supposed to do? I had NQ and ES in my sights - by them time I moved the mouse to lift the offer on NQ, it was 3 HANDLES HIGHER! nitro
Its no mistake that you fucked up as a trader. Maybe you are starting to think you'll make it as a commentator , you know the type...................all piss and wind !