To be a BEAR, or not to be a BEAR!?!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by BlueStreek, Dec 7, 2006.

  1. Is it safe for the bears to come out of hibernation?

    The last two days were the first in a while where we didn`t have buying of the dips in the last hour of trading to push up the indexes.

    In fact, we saw stealth sell programs kick in for the last hour of trading over the last two trading days.

    [as a side note, who decides when the dips are bought; and when they are left alone? There was no fundamental difference between when the dips are bought up...and when they are let to fall news/fundamentally speaking]

    What does this all mean? Nothing as of yet, but tomorrow is critical. It seems that tomorrow may decide whether the sell-off begins in earnest, or we trade sideways for the remainder of the year with some upward bursts possible.

    The news doesn`t matter as we have found out over the last few months, what matters, is the market`s reaction to the news.

    What we need: we need sell-off tomorrow of larger dimensions than the past two days.

    And follow through selling on Monday of next week--with an overall down week next week.

    But there are a lot of frothy stocks out there to be shorted for sure.

    But you noticed a lot of easy money already came out of bidu, rimm, aapl, goog, etc. but there is still a lot of froth out there to capitalize on in a prolonged sell-off.
  2. bluud


    unstable market, mainly oil
    friday and monday maybe
    but next week i think it's bull again (or maybe hold) specailly oil and gold!
  3. Today we had a "Key reversal day" on all major indices with pretty high volume. However, this was not a great accomplishment by the bears as yesterday's daily candle was so small. Last 2 days action in eRL futures has been nauseating.....up, down, up, down...roller coaster maximus.
    Bottomline: new highs could still be made before any significant profit-taking occurs here.
    At this point staunch bears should have very little hair left !
  4. oil will move up at the market`s expense--gold will probably move up with oil as well---but also geo-political pressures could gift oil a much needed boost, as world economy looks to be slowing---thus, lessening the demand for oil.
  5. Until government intervention begins to recede no one will beable to make rational decisions about risk. We are in fiat printing war to see who can devalue there currency the most.

    Foreign central banks big buyers of US debt in week
    Thu Dec 7, 2006 4:30 PM ET

    NEW YORK, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks were huge net buyers of U.S. Treasury and agency debt in the past week, resulting in overall record holdings of U.S. securities, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.

    The Fed said its holdings of Treasury and agency debt kept for overseas central banks rose by $16.77 billion in the week ended Dec. 6, to stand at a total of $1.724 trillion.

    The total surpassed the prior record of $1.713 trillion in the week ended Nov. 22, the Fed said.

    The breakdown of custody holdings showed overseas central banks bought $10.22 billion in Treasury debt to stand at a record total $1.157 trillion.

    The foreign institutions also bought securities from government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae [FNM.N] and Freddie Mac [FRE.N], adding $6.55 billion to their holdings, to stand at a record total $567.3 billion.

    Overseas central banks, particularly those in Asia, have been huge buyers of U.S. debt in recent years, and own over a quarter of marketable Treasuries.
  6. that's a whole lot of IFs.

    Quite honestly, Oil doesn't have much impact on the market at this range. it's just an excuse.
  7. kashirin


    Oil has a direct impact. With oil 10% higher than the last month CPI will pick up again.
    So rate cuts must be forgotten for now. And for market that means Dow bellow 11000 again
  8. I thought bear is becoming an endangered specie.

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  9. Next week the rally resumes

    Remember monday was a HUUGE rally and even after todays selloff we're still above mondays's open and last friday's close.

    Also im sure the markets will rebound on friday.

    Yea yea I sound like a broken record
  10. Dang, does the emergence of this thread mean I need to close my short and go long again? :D

    The joke aside, BlueStreek, you sound a lot more prudent and rational than last few times around. NDX didn't participate in the last run up and is sitting pretty on a 5 month trend line. If it bounces up strongly tomorrow, I'll forget shorting for a while. I like my chances with the kind of divergences I see on different indices though - it's the kind of short signal Victor Sperandeo talks about in his book. I know a lot of traders here don't believe in anticipating tops and bottoms, but somebody has to do it somewhere otherwise there would be no such thing as speculation eh? :)
    #10     Dec 8, 2006