Yes, but what about all those people who are making millions from technical analysis? Their stories are on sites of trading schools. How could so many ta trading schools exist if ta did not work?
It is not that I don't think TA works, just that I am unable to use TA to trade profitably yet and have to rely on other methodology. I appreciate it if you can give me some more coaching, like what should I be looking for when I look at naked chart? Regards,
There's really no shame in this either - it's no secret that there are about as many variations of TA as there are new traders entering the markets whom want to use TA. Not to mention the various permutations within the same 'area' of TA, also. I'm sure we've all read (and are perhaps sick of reading), that any trader has to find their own ways; or to put it more simply, the trading theory finds the trader. This of course comes back to the second most read comment which is around the idea that an identical trading theory will yield two different results between two people - regardless of the rules seeming to be fixed and non-negotiable. So just like each persons risk appetite is different, so is each persons views and applications of TA. I'm new here, at least on this forum, but not within the game of FX Trading. However, one little snip of advice that I would give to anyone is that keeping it simple is key: in theory this is much easier said than done though
If one accepts the full dataset from the market then it's possible to see volume as the leading indicator of price. Most well-meaning folks grounded in CW will deny this basically because their beliefs limit what they can see and therefore what is possible to trade. Using indicators are like training wheels, unfortunately they are lagging indicators - every single one. It's the math. By engaging in purpuseful learning, there are treasures in the ET archives that will support one in achieving your highest goal. Developing one's discernment comes from verifying. Not by asking for proof but more like doing the work required to challenge one's own limiting beliefs. Every successful trader has examined their own bias. Every trader committed to growth and excellence learns very quickly that that process is continual.
@Sprout agree, every trader needs their own personalized approach. Question regarding volume...a lot of volume is not as readily apparent as it used to be (due to swap, etc) do you still see it as being relevant ? Or does the " full data set" you refer to have the "hidden data" ? Thanks
It does work. It's just that there are so many people that think they know what it is and apply it incorrectly, that there's a healthy bunch who constantly whine that it doesn't work. But all you need is to see one trader using pure TA and succeeding for a long enough time, to realize that it really is all you need. Every single one of my mentors uses TA and nothing else.
Thank you for your question. The hidden data is the spectrum of differentiation one has/is creating in their own mind by their own work. The more words we can use to describe a thing, the more it's characteristics are known. Concepts are definable and powerful. Concepts can be proven by math. The math of the markets that create clarity is boolean algebra. True or False. With price there are two cases out of ten that directly translate to making money. Of all the movements of price, it distills to ten unique cases. With Volume there are 11 essential elements that comprise the development of a trend. All liquid markets are symmetrical. All concepts apply to long or short. A trend is defined by three moves. A dominant move, a non-dominant move and a return to dominance. Trends interlock. Longs rollover into shorts, shorts consolidate into longs. We can see that with price pretty easy with a nesting of fractal containers. What drives price to higher and higher levels is the volume of participants that see value. At a point the volume diminishes (Pt2) and a smaller non-dominant move takes place. From here if the trend continues in the initial direction then a (Pt3) has occurred. From here volume will either increase to create a VE in the trend or it will post a FTT. A volatility expansion comes from a new surge of participants that see value. A Failure to traverse comes from fewer and fewer participants agreeing to do business at these price levels. The market is constantly looking for new business. If price will go no further in one direction, then it will migrate in the opposite direction until it the same sequence of events takes place. This scenario can be witness on all time-scales. Each time scale has at the minimum of three fractal containers that can be annotated by a differentiated mind - tapes, traverses and channels. When one shifts from a time-based orientation of markets to an event-based one, everything becomes clearer, easier and supports better feeling emotions. Unfortunately it's not easy. The shift requires a re-assessment of pretty much everything one has been taught about how markets work. It requires drills to form new neural connections so that one might begin to perceive what has been there all along. A trader making bank and another losing bank are both looking at the same data. How they each interpret that data makes all the difference. The above concepts are not really part of Conventional Wisdom nor are they popular nor ever will be. To understand volume first we have to clarify - What are the ten cases of price?
No offense but when I read stuff like this, my eyes roll. At the same time, there is always something new to learn. But, and this is a big BUT, given this very precise introduction to your convoluted system, what are your results like? What markets are you trading? What is your average win and average loss? And what is your win rate? Many times, people with such intricate systems aren't exactly killing it, and flipping a coin is sometimes just as good as their exhaustive analysis.