It's simple : I have absolutely no need for anyone to show me how to be profitable and I will take all of that responsibility entirely upon myself, regardless of others' alleged performances. It may be good to "waste time" analysing bar by bar. Automation doesn't always bring deep knowledge, and may often make it more superficial and general. Automation can be good for some applications (ie. backtesting and order-management), but on the expense of "grok"-ing what may be going on (we're not dealing with certainties here).
Perfectly valid pov. This statement contains a hypothesis set, the parametric measure is based on erroneous assumptions derived from an incomplete dataset. Assumptions can be useful, forgetting what they in fact are is the rug that gets pulled out from underneath any logical construction. The paradigm you attempt to describe lies outside the paradigm the one describing exists within. It requires different measures to understand. It just looks like bs from the outside, with a capital B and S. Which is profoundly perfect. Maybe a story will help. One upon a time, there was an ordinary guy who like to fix computers. He became good at it and was able to save a little bit of money before the company he worked for suddenly closed it's doors. He didn't quite know what to do next so he opened his old journals looking for any theme that might present itself. The idea of having large amounts of land appealed to him but fresh out of college he had no money nor any credit so that dream was very remote. He did have an open mind. So he sought out different perspectives on how to go about it. There is lot's of information out there. So how does one sort through it all? At the time, he came across a concept. The concept was that there were natural laws that influenced the minds and affairs of all beings. So he sought out what these laws might be. One law is the Law of Vibration. Everything vibrates. This lead to the idea of sympathetic vibration, the idea of like-to-like. This law described harmony and disharmony, attraction and repulsion. Looking at the world this way began to stimulate thinking. With this idea in mind, he came across another empowering idea. That of the Merlin principle. Next, he picked up a book that was unique in it's time of offering, "Nothing Down" by Robert Allen. It was one of the first books to popularize the idea that RE is a people business not bricks and mortar. In it, it described multiple creative ways to do RE deals. Mr. Allen, as a marketing gimmick promoted the idea to newspapers, "send to me to any city, give me $100 take away my wallet, and in 72hrs I will have bought a house without money or credit" At the time, it was like the four minute mile before it was broken,... not possible. Our protagonist was not deterred. He read the book and decided to test the concepts for himself by following the directions suggested. He didn't deviate from the instructions, he didn't think he knew a better way, he was unscarred by the mis-fortunes of life. He was also more of a innate believer than an innate skeptic. Within a week, the ideas promoted were put to the test. He say the exact ad he was told to look for. Nervously he called for an appointment to see. Well, at the appointment, it was more like an auction. Over 30 other people were there milling about looking through the property. Most were covering there faces. The smell was unbelievable. The prior tenant squatted for three years. They had mental issues. They used the living room as a kennel for over a dozen different animals. There was a 2 ft wide streak of blackness on all the walls. It was determined that it was due to their hand being dragged across the wall for years. The bathroom were beyond the word disgusting. The smell that permeated the house was enough to bring tears to the eyes, make one cough to the point of dry heaves. A potential homeowner looks at something like that and sees disgust and decay. A potential re-developer sees and smells money. Our protagonist wasn't a re-modeler, a re-developer nor anyone with any skills at all applicable to this new endeavor. He saw interest and decided to act right then. He pulled the RE agent aside, one who had worked in the field over 30yrs and signed a purchase offer and gave his entire savings as the earnest money deposit. The deal was that in 30days he had to come up with the rest of the cash to close the deal. Well, after calling all his friends and family, he realized half-way through he had only raised half the amount. He called the agent and asked for an extension. The agent replied, "No, we have a deal, if you don't follow through you lose your earnest money." When asked about other creative structures, the agent declined and said the owner wouldn't be interested. Undeterred, he went to the recorder's office and found the owner's name. He open the phonebook and called everyone listed, until he found the gentleman who owned the house. He pitched the ideas of creative financing to which the owner declined. As a last measure, he appealed to the owner to remember when they got started in this business. The owner said, "Meet me in my agent's office tomorrow" When Our Guy arrived, he had laserbeams of hate boring into his skull from the agent's disapproval of going behind his back. However, the agent wasn't the decision maker. The owner was. The owner looked amused. In the conversation, the owner shut down all the various "creative financing offers" OG pitched at him. But in the end, it was something about OG's attitude that had the owner offer this deal. "Ok, I'll give you a shot, here's the deal. Take the money you raised and put it into the house. We'll extend closing for 6 months so you have the summer to work on it. If you are diligent, you should have the property to a point where you can get a loan on it. If you aren't able to finish the house or get a loan on it, or if you don't come up with the rest of the money to cash me out, I get to keep the house plus all your improvements. What do you say?" After a quick minute, he realized he could take a path with new problems in front of him or return to his old path with old problems. Even though he had no skills, not enough money for the repairs, nor credit for the buy-out, he decided to invest in himself on the basis of trust. The owner could have screwed him, certainty OG had more at risk. However to good people based in abundance the money was not the driving motivation. The motivation was to provide an opportunity for success for others. People who create success in their own lives are motivated by higher ideals. They know that money comes and goes. However the knowledge and skills to create a life worth living is entirely within one's own self-own sphere of influence. The thoughts we think create the emotions we feel, the emotions we feel determines the actions we take. Trust in oneself is the basis for any lasting success. There is an older, wiser source of guidance within us all. That aspect of our being is essentially positive and is always so. Any negative chatter one hears is ego. So when the broken-record of prove-it-to-me sings it's favorite song, the singer's idea of status is backwards. The listener knows the doors of perception are shut and that there are better more fertile fields to attend to. Sure, this goes against the idea of performing one's due-diligence. People stretch the truth. People exaggerate. People lie. These are people whom have lost their way. People want to be right to the detriment of their happiness. Truth likes to whisper not use a bullhorn. What about OG?! Well, he was living at his folks at the time. His folks lived on a neighborhood being developed from farmland. The ma and pa builders had 3 houses in the process of construction at all times. A house with just the foundation and open framing, another getting the mechanicals, plumbing and electrical installed, a third in the finishing stages. OG would sneak into these houses and observe the building process. OG went through this father's collection of Time-Life Books on remodeling. OG hired inexperience kids out of high school. OG studied at night, came up with the work plan for the following day. OG spent the entire summer getting the house to marketable condition. OG called all the banks in his area, everyone turned him down. OG placed ads in the paper, no one was interested. There was only a month left. Where's was OG's mind? In fear or in Trust? Well, it turns out one of the friends initially approached whom turned him down came back for a surprise visit. He was blown away. It was no longer the same house. It had a new kitchen, bath and sunroom. It had new carpeting, new windows, new electric, new plumbing throughout, the roof was redone and new paint inside and out. The friend offered (out-of-the-blue) to be the credit partner and get the loan. The house was secured. It sold to buyers about 9mths later. Everyone made money on the house. Value was shared. None of these skills were present 6mths prior. But now they are. With that experience the validity of "Blink" comes into view. Purposeful learning always produces more benefits than the effort required yet only for open thinking minds. Is this story directed to you the reader personally? Yes, if you see value in it. No, if you don't. The eyes of the beholder holds the key's to one imprisonment or freedom. Individually, we each get to choose.
QUESTION FROM THE BOTTOM FLOOR, A BARELY SURVIVING 42% TRADER: WHICH OF THE SO MANY MOST PROFITABLE FAMOUS TRADERS ON BOARD HERE, with perhaps 60%, 70%, 80% or higher SUCCESS RATE, SAID THIS.... L O L ....Ask yourself this, if their win rate is barely 50%, which I'm sure it is, then how much of this study is really what is moving the markets if they get it wrong half the time? Shit, ask them to even show they are trading.... PLS TAKE NOTE....! There are many bigger than life traders, such as, Hubert, John, Larry, Jake et al, who since 1986, more than 30 yrs since, operate their fee based live trading rooms calling out to their subscribers live and real money trades; each of their cumulative trading performance hovering around only 50% win-loss ratio....! Yes, i heard it with my own ears from those trading horses' mouths.... many moons ago. They took pride in their trading performances, even though the rest of the trading world, particularly those trading gurus and the trading schools who often boast of their 80% win-loss ratio, have been laughing themselves silly of the unheard of surviving with only meager 50% winning rate....! Would you all also like to join the laughing elite trading crowds....? How on earth then could they survive for so very long, and so very enormously successful....? As Sher often proclaimed.... It is elementary, Watson....! After having seriously studied the attached chart, whether any live and avid traders here, would agree or not, moi do not know and do not care either.... It is posted here just to encourage those learning how to trade profitably and consistently that you too can be handsomely profitable, even if your win-loss trading ratio is barely around 50%.... ! If you have time, eschew the attachment and see what you can get out of it, K? It is excerpted from real-live-good-for-the-money morning session trading, on Thursday, June 29, 2017. Profitable trading everyone CHEERS.
I started to read it, but my gosh, its just too nice outside to waste time on it right now. But the more you write, the more I see that you are the perfect con man. You can never be wrong with your if/then statement that cover all bases. The thing you keep leaving out is talk about your trade stats. Your PnL cannot have this beautiful "right in both cases" analogy you discuss above. It would be like "if my PnL is green it gets added to my total", and "if my PnL is red, it doesn't get subtracted from my total". The market may be a little bit about perception, but if the market is going down, and you see it as a buying opportunity, but it keeps going down, no matter how much of a buying opportunity you think it still shows doesn't make you any more right.
I'm not sure what your point is. The attached picture shows nice stats. Win rate is only 43%, but with the average win of $118 vs. average loss of $22, this trader is nicely profitable. Clearly this isn't you, since you short chart where you are in a trade and up thousands of dollars. Nor is this a chart or someone using this geometry, correct, which is what I'm trying to get someone to quote trade stats on. But if this was, I would have to ask why in only 42% of the cases, all this geometry analysis proved correct, and in more than half of the cases, the geometry analysis failed. The way these guys are discussing every bar its as if they are predicting a move with a very high rate of precision, which clearly isn't the case. When they get around to talking about trades, if ever, then we will finally get around to see any potentials of this system or lack there of.
Excellent points Mr. Gotcha. However, the net outcome is profitable. So, what I like to see is a discussion of how the win rate and profit rate can be improved? Otherwise, this could just be a random effect. Best to all of you.