Is it Berkshire that calculates the Buffett indicator? (TMC to GDP) How do they calculate this? Is there a way to accurately calculate total market cap so that it can be be checked against GDP to get the Buffett indicator?
Publicly available statistic, Berkshire ain't computing anything. St Louis Fed website. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB Totally unreliable indicator. Used to work, until it didn't.
This URL stopped publishing the data since 2017. Apparently they didn't want to miss-lead investors anymore, lol
Don't think you will find this in real-time anywhere for free. Best shot is to see EOD: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_total_market_capitalization Sitting at 190% right now. This indicator works best under normal monetary circumstances, but since 2008/2009, we are in unprecedented & unseen before, monetary situation, hence I don't think it will be that reliable. I suggest that you don't rely on it, just a thought, track a new indicator, FED Balance Sheet to GDP Ratio would be much better.
You can also look at the US M0, M1 & M2 supply as a % of GDP and M2/M1 ratio (Gives you a bit of understanding of how leveraged the economy is). Of course M3 supply is never published (Since it will be astronomical compared to M2). Here is the M2 to GDP ratio @0.87 right now as of end of Q3 2020 (I am eager to see the next data points and waiting for them). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=dZn
Thanks. I am assuming the tip of "don't rely on it" comes from it's not a good measure rather than the link you provided is not reliable. If it is reliable, where do they get their numbers from? there must be a formula or a way to do it through a broke or exchange maybe?
This is interesting to me. Thanks for the link. what is M0 M1 M2? 1 month, 2 months, 3 months? is there also a real-time source for these? I guess not since banks don't allow direct access to their deposit data.
Don't rely on it refers back to the TMC to GDP ratio I mean, didn't mean the website data reliability. So your understanding is correct. And I just want to make myself clear, my opinion is not to rely on TMC to GDP ratio because we are in an unusual monetary situation.