TMA Play

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by demoship, Apr 8, 2008.

  1. I sold 30 contracts Jan 2010 2.5 Put @ 2.20 and 10 contracts Jan 2009 2.5 Put @ 2.15.

    Basically, as long as TMA stays above 30 - 35 cents, I profit.

    The only reason the puts are so ridiculously overpriced is because the cost to borrow shares to short is built into puts.

    I estimate that TMA, after dilution from the recent events, if they survive, is worth about a buck - 1.50 / share. It's unlikely they'll go bust if they successfully sell the 1 billion or so in new debt. It's also highly unlikely that they'll go ABOVE $2.50, since the original shareholders are only retaining 5.5% of the company after dilution (and the original value of the company was $25 - $30 in good times, so even if they make a full recovery the share value isn't $2.50).

    So I'm essentially synthetically long TMA @ an average price of 32 cents :)