View attachment 357526 92.40-> 94.85->87.30 I am not blaming anyone but myself and I haven’t totally thrown the towel in, but needless to say I misread this, and it’s been expensive. I am in the process of finding out if RSI divergences apply to rates :-/
I chart flies (switches) across the curve and find it somewhat predictive. Rates are fcked. Prices are out of control and about to get a lot worse.
The Fed unloaded 830bil in paper in 2024, the third year in a row they lightened up. Thru have never been sellers four years in row. S lot of it is repo. They sold more last year than they had in assets at any point before the financial crisis. There making room to ease. May not come tomorrow but the cost of debt is unsustainable here.
you need to have a conviction in a long position and profit target, obviously we are not going back to zero interest, expect tlt to be bounded around 82-100 is reasonable, just take the profit when necessary.
I handed these calls back to Citadel’s finest for the time being and flipped into a short term MSTR reversion play, whenever this gets running I’ll get back in. I have a lot of capital to reacquire
After the January 17th OPEX is over and if the long end > 5% I am pulling the trigger. Make Treasuries Great Again!
You guys all assume rates are going lower? That seems like a risky strategy. I don't see any evidence of it actually happening. So I assume you guys are short the USD as well? I still have the Jan 85 puts on TLT & the Jan 29 calls on UUP. My guess is the trend continues especially now that all the major indices are below their 50-day SMA.