TLT--the long ride might be over

is this a saying?

 

This looks like a blow-off top in TLT.
However, for this to end, we'll need an event like a vote in parlament to nix Brexit.
A more remote possibility is for great earnings announcements for Q2.

 

Looking at the weekly chart this is nice break out from a cup and handle pattern. My system had me rotating out of IWM and into TLT a few weeks ago. Staying long here!

http://www.fasterbull.com/members/strategy-portfolio-builder.html?id=22

 

Thank you

 

Indeedy

 

Marty, are you sure your math is right on that?

 

I am never sure of anything...

My arithmetic as follows, so you can check:
- assuming same CTD, 1 5/8 Apr23s, yields 1% at delivery, I get a fwd px of 103.972714
- using conversion factor of 0.7674, I get a futures px of smth like 135.6 or roughly 135-20

This also is in line w/a rough-and-tumble calc. Current TY fwd yield (using 133-26 px) is roughly 1.20. Given TY's duration, every full point in the futures is worth arnd 11bps, so that gets you to arnd 135.56.

 

A good job report today and TLT rallied. An very interesting day.

 

A great indication the market has moved into the twilight zone of irrationality.

 

good call so far