Tip of the iceberg. Where smoke=fire

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by stock777, May 24, 2011.

  1. no comment by whats left of this pitiful peanut gallery?
  2. mokwit


    Come on, what did you expect? We're just a bunch of losers living in our Mom's basement and dreaming of turning $1,500 into millions day trading against co-located servers by using intraday MACD crossovers.

    Actually was informative. Thanks for posting.
  3. mokwit


    We are not worthy.
  4. TraDaToR


    One indeed. Thanks for showing us how physical traders , not speculators, are manipulating prices.
  5. hen12y


    if you have deep enough pockets and big enough balls to take them on, then do so. The 'manipulation' in prices by physical traders is just them taking a position to profit from a direction they believe the market will go in. If you are Vitol, Mercuria, Gunvor, or Shell then you could quite easily take an opposing position to them if you so believed. Not many firms have the resources to do it, but that doesn't mean it cant be done. The commodity market is just so vast no one single player can possibly manipulate prices any more. I've seen it in the North Sea Brent market. 1 person buys all the benchmark cargoes to make a long play, but once everyone knows they hold all the cargoes who is going to buy them at an elevated price when they can get a substitute grade elsewhere!? I believe the CFTC has a loosing case here.

    Interestingly when Vitol - allegedly - made a massive short play on the WTI-Brent spread which was trading around the +$1 mark at the time last year just before it expired, then used their physical capacity to top off cushing so it nearly hit tank tops, and the spread collapsed to somewhere around -$5, no one complained too loudly... crude prices fell, Vitol - allegedly - made millions. But can you imagine the uproar if a long play had been made and someone profited at the expense of higher oil prices?!

    Its just as much spin, PR and politics as it is actual trading. See the below story, and counter story!


  6. did you enjoy your 115 oil?
  7. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    I think it illustrates why spreads, especially in the energy markets, are a trader's wet dream with the proper modeling. Got this email from one of my clients late this morning who started training with me October 2010 and transitioned into trading live in April:

    Crazy day today in oil market. it worked nicely for me though. i had both BRN Q1:U1 and BRN U1:Z1 short and they both hit my target.
    Doing well so far, up 10% since April.
    #10     Jun 23, 2011