Timing the market Sucks, but...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ProfitTakgFool, Nov 30, 2007.

  1. Real quick...1490 resistance on SPX -- that was the rationale for the trigger. Upside potential was massive based on another chart (not pictured) so there's no way I could let this move against me. It popped, I stopped -- right at the ABSOLUTE freaking high -- that sucks! I can either cry about it or get back to work. I hit it again a little harder when I saw what happened. The next red circle is my next short trigger (same price). The first blue one is my partial and the second was a reversal, which gave me 3 more ticks on the upside.

    I hate trying to time the futures market perfectly. I let positions go against me all the time if I have resistance levels up above to slow the move down. That wasn't the case today. This bad boy could have ran another 10 pts w/o stopping so I had to stop. What I did after this unfortunate event determined whether I won or lost. Something like this will happen. You just have to move on to the next trade, perhaps with a little bit of anger. Don't let the market sucker punch you and get away with it.
  2. S2007S


    dont worry I have a feeling this market rally will end as quick as it started.

    Over 600 points in one week, all this on the hopes of a 50bp cut in rates, im laughing now. A .25 cut and say goodbye to about 300 points of this rally. Nothing has changed in the credit markets, liquidity continues to dry up. NDX just went red as well, :eek:
  3. totally agree -- all good news has been priced in. .25 and down we go.

  4. Well I hope the market stays flat or goes up next week, because I'll be out of town and won't be able to take advantage of any drop!
  5. Blowing the excessive shorts out on the downside, just like clearing the excessive longs on the upside.

    I know one thing, fighting the Fed is a losing idea just about every time.

    Commodities pulling back a little, money going to chase the markets through year end?

    I do know when rappers and super models are wise to the dollar's demise, well that's just as good a sign as a bottom as I need. I had a waitress in August tell me crude was going down into year end, and guess what, well you know the story there.

    Greed when fear rules and fear when greed pervades. That's what I know.

    Good Luck!
  6. Mvic


    Its tough to be short in this environment now matter how logical it seems. We now have both the Bernanke Pyt and the China SF Put to contend with, the first put you in fear for your life (another haily mary cut that will fry your position) and second seriously impacts the RR of any short trade. Trading 1/3 the size I did going in to August partly to keep my profits but also because as has been mentioned on Et by others volatility has picked up substantially both ways.