Timing QQQQ

Interesting stuff here .... though after perusing the entire thread out of a case of insomnia last night (ugh!) I was curious what you're basing your timing / "system" on ... because, no offense, I see a bunch of BUY or SELL calls and some decent returns, but based on what? A periodic news article? Gut instinct? Market action on the previous day?

Note that I'm not asking for the keys to the kingdom (I don't trade the Qs anyway) but I guess more substantiation of how you come to your decision-making might be helpful for folks here who do want to follow along with you.

Best of luck to you!

 

Rickf,

All BUY and SELL signals were produced by the system there is no Gut instinct involved. My post like sell when the TV showing the bill is about to pass is gut feeling and will not count as final performance.

My gut feeling can be so wrong, for example, if you read my thread, I bet the government would not let LEH to fail because LEH failure will destabilize the entire financial system. And Paulson did it anyway with trillions of dollars price tag.

 

Oct 9 : Close @31.52

3% gain turned to -3% loss!

This is the market condition that very long has to set stop, or you could be the next.

 

Question:

Who said this?

“the five most dangerous words in business” — “everybody else is doing it.”


When everyone put every bit of their life savings in the stock market and think they can retire within ten years.

 

Oct 10 : BUY @31.32
New (+1000)

 

<table><tr><td>Date </td><td></td><td>Action</td><td></td><td>Price</td><td></td><td>P/L</td><td></tr/><tr><td>FEB 19:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.35</td><td></td><td> Start</td></tr><tr><td>FEB 22:</td><td> </td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@43.46</td><td></td><td>+0.89</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 13:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@43.00 </td><td></td><td>-0.46</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 19:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@42.32 </td><td></td><td>+0.68</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 24:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.68 </td><td></td><td>+2.36</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 25:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.82 </td><td></td><td>-0.14</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 26:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.67 </td><td></td><td>-0.15</td></tr><tr><td>APR 8:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@45.41 </td><td></td><td>-0.74</td></tr><tr><td>APR 10:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.56 </td><td></td><td>+0.15</td></tr><tr><td>APR 14:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.08</td><td></td><td>+1.48</td></tr><tr><td>APR 16:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.36</td><td></td><td>+1.28</td></tr><tr><td>APR 18:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.7</td><td></td><td>-1.34</td></tr><tr><td>APR 21:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.04</td><td></td><td>+0.34</td></tr><tr><td>APR 30:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.2</td><td></td><td>-0.16</td></tr><tr><td>MAY 2:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@48.9</td><td></td><td>+1.7</td></tr><tr><td>May 5:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.63</td><td></td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>May 8:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.40</td><td></td><td>-0.23</td></tr><tr><td>May 20:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@49.27</td><td></td><td>-0.87</td></tr><tr><td>May 27:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@49.07</td><td></td><td>-0.20</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 10:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.54</td><td></td><td>+0.53</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 11:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.31</td><td></td><td>-1.23</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 13:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.38</td><td></td><td>-1.07</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 18:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.01</td><td></td><td>-0.37</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 23:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.02</td><td></td><td>+0.99</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 27:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.65</td><td></td><td>-1.37</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 30:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@45.15</td><td></td><td>+0.5</td></tr><tr><td>July 8:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.99</td><td></td><td>+0.84</td></tr><tr><td>July 9:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.75</td><td></td><td>+1.24</td></tr><tr><td>July 10:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.27</td><td></td><td>+0.52</td></tr><tr><td>July 11:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.56</td><td></td><td>+0.71</td></tr><tr><td>July 16:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.34</td><td></td><td>+0.78</td></tr><tr><td>July 28:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.42</td><td></td><td>+0.92</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 5:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.98</td><td></td><td>+1.56</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 7:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.27</td><td></td><td>-0.29</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 15:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.16</td><td></td><td>+1.89</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 18:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.60</td><td></td><td>+0.56</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 20:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.07</td><td></td><td>-0.53</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 25:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.49</td><td></td><td>+0.58</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 28:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.11</td><td></td><td>+0.62</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 29:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.12</td><td></td><td>+0.99</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 4:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@43.66</td><td></td><td>-2.46</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 5:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@43.45</td><td></td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 10:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@42.8</td><td></td><td>-0.65</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 15:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@42.08</td><td></td><td>+0.72</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 19:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@42.9</td><td></td><td>+0.82</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 23:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@40.57</td><td></td><td>+2.33</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 25:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@41.50</td><td></td><td>+0.93</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 26:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@41.07</td><td></td><td>+0.43</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 1:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@38.5</td><td></td><td>-2.57</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 2:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@36.75</td><td></td><td>+1.75</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 7:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@32.8</td><td></td><td>-3.99</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 8:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@32.39</td><td></td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 9:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@31.52</td><td></td><td>-0.83</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 10:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@31.32</td><td></td><td>0</td></tr></table>

 

Since beginning of the Journal (Feb19)

System: +21%
Nasdaq: -28%
QQQQ: -29%
DOW: -32%
SP500: -33%

My realtime calls were much better see the pictures, but for the system: only end of day price counts.

There is clear trend going on now, stock went up before good news (might) get announced like this morning Bush speech, 700B bill is about to pass (twice), government is about to lend money directly,... as soon as the news is out, market drops like a rock.

The next one is Paulson will announce buying bank shares, Monday stock market might open up, then it could just follow the previous pattern: sell on news. And there is reason for that:

It's part of 700B. It's not buy directly from open market, with the bank shares so low, it's a huge dillusion for the current share holders, basically instead of tax payers pay for the mess, it's the bank investors to foot the bill.... Bank will use the money to pay short term loan they get from FED (so FED is out of hook) There still no new money for the struggling companies. (so the market might open lower, that could be a real black Monday)


The correct solution is to create a national bank like FNM and FRE to lend money directly and cheaply to the struggling companies, not go through existing banking system, once burned, it will take years before banks start lend again.

 

My biggest mistake this year is that government would not let LEH fail, this is my post three months ago:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ghlight=codedeep007+right+to+fail#post1991307

I completely underestimated the damage, the damage is over 5 Trillion

 

Notice:

I will suspend posting results for system maintenance. The Oct 10 signal (BUY) should be ignored and will be changed to CLOSE for Maintenance accordingly.

I will try to add artificial intelligence (linguistics-news-analyzer) to the system so it can handle current market condition.

 

<table><tr><td>Date </td><td></td><td>Action</td><td></td><td>Price</td><td></td><td>P/L</td><td></tr/><tr><td>FEB 19:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.35</td><td></td><td> Start</td></tr><tr><td>FEB 22:</td><td> </td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@43.46</td><td></td><td>+0.89</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 13:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@43.00 </td><td></td><td>-0.46</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 19:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@42.32 </td><td></td><td>+0.68</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 24:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.68 </td><td></td><td>+2.36</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 25:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.82 </td><td></td><td>-0.14</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 26:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.67 </td><td></td><td>-0.15</td></tr><tr><td>APR 8:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@45.41 </td><td></td><td>-0.74</td></tr><tr><td>APR 10:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.56 </td><td></td><td>+0.15</td></tr><tr><td>APR 14:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.08</td><td></td><td>+1.48</td></tr><tr><td>APR 16:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.36</td><td></td><td>+1.28</td></tr><tr><td>APR 18:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.7</td><td></td><td>-1.34</td></tr><tr><td>APR 21:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.04</td><td></td><td>+0.34</td></tr><tr><td>APR 30:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.2</td><td></td><td>-0.16</td></tr><tr><td>MAY 2:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@48.9</td><td></td><td>+1.7</td></tr><tr><td>May 5:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.63</td><td></td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>May 8:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.40</td><td></td><td>-0.23</td></tr><tr><td>May 20:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@49.27</td><td></td><td>-0.87</td></tr><tr><td>May 27:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@49.07</td><td></td><td>-0.20</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 10:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.54</td><td></td><td>+0.53</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 11:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.31</td><td></td><td>-1.23</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 13:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.38</td><td></td><td>-1.07</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 18:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.01</td><td></td><td>-0.37</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 23:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.02</td><td></td><td>+0.99</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 27:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.65</td><td></td><td>-1.37</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 30:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@45.15</td><td></td><td>+0.5</td></tr><tr><td>July 8:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.99</td><td></td><td>+0.84</td></tr><tr><td>July 9:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.75</td><td></td><td>+1.24</td></tr><tr><td>July 10:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.27</td><td></td><td>+0.52</td></tr><tr><td>July 11:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.56</td><td></td><td>+0.71</td></tr><tr><td>July 16:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.34</td><td></td><td>+0.78</td></tr><tr><td>July 28:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.42</td><td></td><td>+0.92</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 5:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.98</td><td></td><td>+1.56</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 7:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.27</td><td></td><td>-0.29</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 15:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.16</td><td></td><td>+1.89</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 18:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.60</td><td></td><td>+0.56</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 20:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.07</td><td></td><td>-0.53</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 25:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.49</td><td></td><td>+0.58</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 28:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.11</td><td></td><td>+0.62</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 29:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.12</td><td></td><td>+0.99</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 4:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@43.66</td><td></td><td>-2.46</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 5:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@43.45</td><td></td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 10:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@42.8</td><td></td><td>-0.65</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 15:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@42.08</td><td></td><td>+0.72</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 19:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@42.9</td><td></td><td>+0.82</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 23:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@40.57</td><td></td><td>+2.33</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 25:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@41.50</td><td></td><td>+0.93</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 26:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@41.07</td><td></td><td>+0.43</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 1:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@38.5</td><td></td><td>-2.57</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 2:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@36.75</td><td></td><td>+1.75</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 7:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@32.8</td><td></td><td>-3.99</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 8:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@32.39</td><td></td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 9:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@31.52</td><td></td><td>-0.83</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 10:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE for Maintenance</td><td></td><td>@31.32</td><td></td><td>0</td></tr></table>

Since beginning of the Journal (Feb19)

System: +21%
Nasdaq: -28%
QQQQ: -29%
DOW: -32%
SP500: -33%

Current market condition is tough, my realtime timing posts have all been great, they are however excluded from the above performance table for clarity and simplicity. The purpose of this maintenance is to incorporate this knowledge into the trading system.