Timing QQQQ

In some sense, my model does take the "complex statistical derivative delta neutral modeling" into account, but I think it's pretty useless for predicting the earthquake in a meaningful time frame.

 

<table><tr><td>Date </td><td></td><td>Action</td><td></td><td>Price</td><td></td><td>P/L</td><td></tr/><tr><td>FEB 19:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.35</td><td></td><td> Start</td></tr><tr><td>FEB 22:</td><td> </td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@43.46</td><td></td><td>+0.89</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 13:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@43.00 </td><td></td><td>-0.46</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 19:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@42.32 </td><td></td><td>+0.68</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 24:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.68 </td><td></td><td>+2.36</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 25:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.82 </td><td></td><td>-0.14</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 26:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.67 </td><td></td><td>-0.15</td></tr><tr><td>APR 8:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@45.41 </td><td></td><td>-0.74</td></tr><tr><td>APR 10:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.56 </td><td></td><td>+0.15</td></tr><tr><td>APR 14:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.08</td><td></td><td>+1.48</td></tr><tr><td>APR 16:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.36</td><td></td><td>+1.28</td></tr><tr><td>APR 18:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.7</td><td></td><td>-1.34</td></tr><tr><td>APR 21:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.04</td><td></td><td>+0.34</td></tr><tr><td>APR 30:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.2</td><td></td><td>-0.16</td></tr><tr><td>MAY 2:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@48.9</td><td></td><td>+1.7</td></tr><tr><td>May 5:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.63</td><td></td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>May 8:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.40</td><td></td><td>-0.23</td></tr><tr><td>May 20:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@49.27</td><td></td><td>-0.87</td></tr><tr><td>May 27:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@49.07</td><td></td><td>-0.20</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 10:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.54</td><td></td><td>+0.53</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 11:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.31</td><td></td><td>-1.23</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 13:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.38</td><td></td><td>-1.07</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 18:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.01</td><td></td><td>-0.37</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 23:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.02</td><td></td><td>+0.99</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 27:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.65</td><td></td><td>-1.37</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 30:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@45.15</td><td></td><td>+0.5</td></tr><tr><td>July 8:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.99</td><td></td><td>+0.84</td></tr><tr><td>July 9:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.75</td><td></td><td>+1.24</td></tr><tr><td>July 10:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.27</td><td></td><td>+0.52</td></tr><tr><td>July 11:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.56</td><td></td><td>+0.71</td></tr><tr><td>July 16:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.34</td><td></td><td>+0.78</td></tr><tr><td>July 28:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.42</td><td></td><td>+0.92</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 5:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.98</td><td></td><td>+1.56</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 7:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.27</td><td></td><td>-0.29</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 15:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.16</td><td></td><td>+1.89</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 18:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.60</td><td></td><td>+0.56</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 20:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.07</td><td></td><td>-0.53</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 25:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.49</td><td></td><td>+0.58</td></tr></table>

 

Day Trader trying to beat the market by reacting more quickly is like an earthquake warning system:

http://blogs.nature.com/news/thegreatbeyond/2008/07/japans_earthquake_warning_syst.html

 

Did you have any open positions on Aug 26?

 

AUG 26, BUY
Hold (+1000)

 

WOW!

 

AUG 27, BUY
Hold (+1000)

Not much gain, that's disappointing...

 

Since Start of the Journal (Feb 19)

System: +26%
QQQQ: +5.3%
Nasdaq: +3.3%
SP500: -5%
DOW: -6.8%

 

AUG 28 SELL @47.11
New (-1000)

Market is strong, QQQQ is weak. Why market is strong?

SEC May Let Companies Abandon U.S. Accounting Rules

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=134910&perpage=6&pagenumber=2

 

Happy anniversary to my university:

1958.9 - 2008.9