I tend to side with Yannis on this subject also. I think TI is pretty good about providing on-going support also and I don't think there are any extra charges for this. You can actually trade the set-ups live on the calls with Roger. I did not purchase their system. I developed my own and it has served me pretty well so far. I did incorporate alot of their simple ideas into my own system. Like Yannis, I try to filter the trades and not just take every set-up on the M1 chart. Don't take the first signal against the trend, etc. I don't know how much it matters, but they are endorsed by CBOT. CBOT only has a couple endorsements of this type, I think. That impressed me a little and made me look further. They are marketers, yes. But the basis of the divergence method they teach is sound. I would add that there are other divergence systems out their that you can purchase for much less $. Maybe you should check these out. There is one company listed on TradeStation that has one. If you are interested, let me know and I will go get the link for you. Any more questions on TIMES, I will be happy to try to answer for you.
YANNIS - Who did you get to write the easy language for the TI divergence signal. I thought this would be impossible since it is so discrectionary and did not bother to pursue the idea. If you don't mind, I would be interested in knowing who did it and how much it cost? You can send me a PM or something if you'd rather.
Yannis and Vision, I'm happy that some folks are having success with the TI system. I have put a lot of effort into trying to make it work--with mixed success. My biggest complaint about the system is that it is touted as being "purely mechanical" and "anyone can learn it" when in the end it is somewhat mechanical and highly discretionary. For that TI must be faulted. If they told their customers that once you see the signal, you must also run the discretionary filters of: choppy, volatility, impending news, first against a trend, is there a trend, first trade of the day, consecutive trade and probably several others I'm not remembering, they would not be able to sell their education/system for the price they do. I have listened in on a number of support sessions, which have been helpful, but one thing I noticed several times is that when either Roger or Afshin makes a call and it goes against them, they will change their position and say "now see here, we have a trend going in that direction, so we should have not taken that..." or something like that. I post these things not to be critical of the TIMES method, but so that others can see a realistic evaluation of the product. As yet I do not know of anyone who is successfully using the program as it is described and taught. Everyone who speaks of success with the system does so in the context of adding their own filters and indicators (ADX and so forth), and that includes myself. On the other hand, I would very much enjoy a discussion about what does work in the TI system. You mentioned trading the system with the trend. Does this mean you are looking for the first JOT signal when ADX rises above 20? My best success has been with the JOT signal. The difficulty is knowing when a trend has started vs. plain old volatility. What are your thoughts? Cheer, kp
To me, trading with the trend is taking the M1 signal with the trend. The JOT trade is not a divergenced based trade and you are just jumping on the wagon here at the first pullback. Also, you are defining the trend by TI standards as a move of 5 or more points with at least one pullback. Step back, take a look at the real trend. Look at a longer time frame chart for this. In other words, if the trend is UP, don't take any short signals at the top. Wait for a long signal to develop again.
That is precisely my problem. A long time ago I gave up on trying to use the TI criteria for the trend. Now I use a 5 min, but I must say that it is much more subjective than I would like it to be. How would you describe what is and what is not a trend? Thanks, kp
abishiai, I agree with what you wrote. Maybe, by the time I got the TI system (Feb 2002) I had already worked with several other vendors and I was automatically discounting all the salesy stuff I was hearing and never gave it much credence. As far as JOT signals are concerned, I already had my own method for that (I call it "45 degree") and didn't use the TI approach to jump on the trend. For me, TIMES is just a way to see the double (confirmed if you will) ES/NQ divergences and trade the ones that look good. Pure and simple. Adding a Bollinger Band or something like that (Keltner Channel, etc) can also help. The ADX filter is just a negative condition - don't trade when ADX(14)<20, because there's no trend to speak of. Also when ADX(14) has risen to above 45 and now it's dropping into the low 30s... watch out, the trend is weakening, which means that the range will be narrow and the reversal won't have enough juice to produce a profit. Thinking about my adaptations of the method, I did tweak it quite a bit here and there as I always do, but now it's hard for me to distinguish what I do from what they put in their manual. Yes, definitely, this is not a mechanical system - you've got to work it in your own way with some discretion and experience helps. Yet, I haven't found a better, simpler reversal system out there, at least not yet
Good question. The more I think about it, the more I think of how diccretionary this is for me. I guess it is more of a gut call. I generally always have an H4 chart, Daily to look at to get an idea on direction. Just think about this morning for instance. Would you have felt comfortable taking shorts. Not me, the trend was up. There you go clear as mud.
There are many good ways of estimating the strength and direction of trend and I use all of them, most of the time. a. Look at the pivots on your screen that define the local highs and lows - a clean progression of higher highs and higher lows is an up trend... and vice versa. The higher the highs etc the stronger the trend etc. Plot your favorite MA (I like EMA 20) and look at the direction it's going, etc. When the trend is relatively strong, trade with it only. b. You may ask: what's a pivot? I use TS' zigzag indicator set at the 1 point mark. This plots a straight, thin yellow line between extremes that are 1 point and more apart. There are other similar indicators out there for other major charting applications. then, if those highs and lows go up, it's up... etc. All this tool does is make the pivots visible - your eyes do the rest, but now it's easier. c. Of course, the devil is in the details: what about when you have higher highs and lower lows etc... ? Well, TIMES doesn't mind that - in those cases, play it to your heart's content. d. What TIMES doesn't like are the times when the range is narrow. You can see the range with the zigzag or estimate it yourself. Range (most recent high to low to high) should be more that 3 points, better yet, more than 4 points, or else the risk is high and you should be adjusting the profit targets/ stop losses, and postpone those bathroom breaks for a while e. Plot ADX(14) below your chart and consider staying out when ADX is below 20 - or when ADX has risen to above 45 and it's now dropping to the low 30s etc - the trend is weakening. This is not a strict rule of mine - after all I don't need the trend, just the range. f. Watch the same stuff on 2, 3, or 5 min charts - your pick - they'll tell you a similar story a bit longer term and let you gauge your trades. g. Experiment with tick charts - e.g., 250 tick for the active parts of the day. I like them. h. Perhaps the most important thing here is what is a turn, a reversal... does a miniscule turn of the indicator for a minute qualify? etc. Here only experience can guide you. Imo, this is the Achilles' heel of the reversal signals. I like definite, somewhat rounded, gracefull turns that are supported by other elements on the chart. I like even better those big-picture, triple top/borrom formations that tell you something's bound to happen. They work almost 100% of the time, but experience in spotting them is paramount. Luck helps too Do not let your subconscious take you down the path that this ought to be a mechanical system - it's not. It's a reversal daytrading method that works on double/confirmed divergences. Choose your trades carefully.
Basically it is just another method for sale with no real money trading results available, which means that not even " creators " can trade it profitably with real money. If you are serious about learning to trade profitably, pm or email me. Walter
"Yes, definitely, this is not a mechanical system - you've got to work it in your own way with some discretion and experience helps. Yet, I haven't found a better, simpler reversal system out there, at least not yet ." I have no beef with the idea of taking some trading ideas and modifying them for one's own use so that they "fit" the user's style, etc. Looks like you did a good job of that Yannis. What I do take issue with is the guys at Traders International advertising that you can make 2 points a day with their system AS LONG AS YOU STRICTLY FOLLOW THEIR TRADING RULES. This is what they say and yet they have zero evidence to support it - unless you count the testimonials on their web site. It seems to me to be fraudulent misrepresentation when you take money from the public for something that, as advertised, does not work. I have learned my lesson, but Yannis, you seem to be supporting TI and yet you don't trade their system. I just want this to be clear to others. No criticism of you intended at all. In fact, thank you for your earlier email with some very good tips - I am going to look into those. - Rob.