Time to turn in my claws?

I have made money for so long shorting the naz that when this thing turns up I'm going to be in trouble for awhile. I dont know how to play an uptrending market. I am pretty good at calling tops but I'm not so good at calling bottoms so I don't make many long trades. Needless to say, I haven't made much money these last few days. I did ok today with my standard midmorning short of the Q's but gave half of it back for failing to recognize the late rally. The fact that it fought its way back on Friday afternoon makes me think I better start rethinking my strategies.

 

Nic

Might I suggest finding Harris or HKuppy on Yahoo and watching him do his bottom fishing technique. He has a chatroom there. Run searches here on elitetrader.com for Great New Pattern, Harris is Pretorian2 here.

Rtharp

 

I feel much the same...I started trading just before the bubble bust so almost all of my experience is with a downtrending market.

I can spot a lame duck, but become quite dazed and confused by stocks that keep going up...

 

I have been fading rallies for so long.....what the hell is a rally without at least a 38% retracement.!? This 'rally then base then breakout then base then breakout again' stuff is tough for me to trade. But it seems I remember doing it well once upon a time so we must all have adapted at one point. However a few days does not a change in market conditions make IMO. So it may be difficult for awhile, for me anyway. Just frustrating to here everyone talking about the great trading conditions and losing $$ or closing scratch every day these past few sessions.

 

My feelings precisely. Every time you go long - you feel like a fool and every time you short the market you get creamed. Hard to figure out the direction of the market these last few days. We should have topped out days ago, but the market is very stubborn and just does not want to go down. I have no answer to that, except maybe step aside for a couple of days and watch the action.

 

i think part of my problem is that i get depressed when the CNBC crew are all in a good mood, but that's just me...

 

I made myself a promise back in July - when CNBC guest commentators start giving short recommendations, then it would be time to go long. This time has come and past, but I am still more short than long. Talk about broken promises! The problem is that I just cannot see higher prices in the future for any of the stocks that I trade. I wonder whether this was the EXACT OPPOSITE of how the bulls felt back in April 2000? We all know what happened afterwards.

 

I think we are headed for some very interesting times. Greenie is trying to re-inflate the bubble. Everyone (avg investor) is in a fetal position thinking if we just go back to those times we will be fine. They have seen all those sweet, effortless gains from 1998 onward disappear.

Truth of the matter is very different. Valuations of the QQQ companies are astronomical. I think YHOO is now at around 200 PE for 2002 earnings.

Bear markets do not give up so easily. We can have some serious rallies ahead but I personally don't think we have seen the bottom. Bottoms are reached when people give up looking for them, not when every other rally is billed as one.

Emerging markets such as Argentina and Brazil are just entering gut wrenching economic difficulties. Japan is in dire straights with many banks facing insolvency due to a recent accounting regulation. Europe is lead by a central bank that is loath to reduce interest rates since they target inflation (driving by looking in the rear-view mirror). And the final concern for me is that 'gurus' such as Cohen have not disappeared.

I would suggest taking a look at this: http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm

As a trader it is extremely difficult to remain fluid and void of emotion or preference. But that is what we must do. And although I have my opinions I will be the first to abandon it if the markets prove me wrong, because I value...