Time to start accumulating homebuilder stocks

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by wave, Jun 26, 2007.

  1. There's really no confirmation that any of that is true. Same with MU being bought out, AMZN buying NFLX, CRM being bought out by GOOG, etc. etc. etc.

    I'd have to say Buffet is smarter than that and would wait for a real bottoming sign.

    Good luck.
     
    #21     Jul 13, 2007
  2. wave

    wave

    You bet he is. That's why he was already long before releasing the rumor. LOL, what a brainwashed society.
     
    #22     Jul 13, 2007
  3. Hope so....then we can short the shit out of them again from much higher prices.
     
    #23     Jul 13, 2007
  4. Before jumping the gun on home building stocks, consider
    these two points:

    1: Housing is a 5 to 10 year cycle.
    I have bought and sold houses through everyone of them since 1976.
    Here is the housing cycles that I have experienced in California:
    Up Cycle.......1976-1980.
    Flat Period....1981-1985.
    Up Cycle.......1986-1990.
    Flat Period....1991-1999.
    Up Cycle.......2000-2005.
    Flat Period?..2006-2010?

    Interesting note:
    The Flat Periods of time were approximately 5 years, with the exception of 1991 to 1999. This unusually long flat period actually had housing price declines of -25% to -40% at the midpoint (1995) in CA.
    This was probably caused by more than a doubling of home prices in the prior up cycle and an extended bull market for Wall Street.

    2: Historically when the stock market is bullish, the housing market is flat.
    When the Housing market is booming, the stock market is bearish or flat.
    The best example above is the 1991 to 1999 flat housing period. This was the longest continual bull market in history.

    A likely scenerio for the present time is a continually flat or declining housing market until 2010.
    By 2010, the current stock market would then have a 7 year bull run and need a rest, which would cause investors to start speculating in real estate again.
     
    #24     Jul 13, 2007
  5. wave

    wave

    Thanks, but no thanks. Price and Patterns tell me what and when to do it. Been there, done that. Up 20% already, another 20% more to go. Stop trying to be smarter than the market.
     
    #25     Jul 13, 2007
  6. What are you up 20% on? :confused:
     
    #26     Jul 13, 2007
  7. wave

    wave

    the group. HOV, BZH, TOL, etc. Combined % up today around 20% +.
     
    #27     Jul 13, 2007
  8. How? Not a single one of them is up 20%.

    You mean combined and not averaged? :confused:
     
    #28     Jul 13, 2007
  9. wave

    wave

    Learning how markets behave will make you money. Trying to justify your ivy league degrees and cfa status with over analysis won't. The junk technical indicators won't make you money either. You are not smarter than the markets. Learn how to recognize the fear and greed patterns in the markets.
     
    #29     Jul 13, 2007
  10. This coming from a guy who combines his individual gains rather than averaging them over his whole portfolio? Wow...you're out there. :p

    Where did the ivy league and cfa bullshit come from? :confused:

    And I'm sorry asking questions rather than jumping into terrible industries is "overthinking" things.
     
    #30     Jul 13, 2007