Time to sell ZB?

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by Real Money, Sep 1, 2019.

  1. Real Money

    Real Money

    Is this bond rally going to continue into next week? Should we be looking to get short the 30 year?
  2. ffs1001


    I have been short ZB for a couple of weeks now in various forms - via outrights, credit call spreads, and ZB-ZN future spread.

    Let's see what next week brings.
    Handle123 and Real Money like this.
  3. maxinger


    are you talking about day trading or swing trading?

    for day trading, there might be opportunities to take long and short positions within a day.

    If swing trading, where is the reversal signal / pattern?
    There is big difference between reversal trading and counter trend trading.
  4. Real Money

    Real Money

    The yield on 30 year is at a near all time low. 8/28/19 is the all time low on charts I'm seeing. I was referring to position trading if low is retested next week.

  5. Cannon_Trading

    Cannon_Trading Sponsor

    Maybe for the very short term, possibly selling calls but I would not get too excited unless we break below 161.12
  6. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    Do you think that Powell is done ? I don't and no serious trader that I know of thinks so either.

    Hell, Draghi isn't done either and the ECB has negative rates across the curve.
    Cannon_Trading likes this.
  7. Cannon_Trading

    Cannon_Trading Sponsor

    I agree that bonds right now are mostly rate news and econ numbers but I wanted to share that I got a sell signal on the weekly chart last night. Will be interesting to watch....
  8. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    Caution is in order with the Elliott Wave Count and other cyclical count indicators... if you used it the past eleven years with the stock market - specifically the exhaustion wave; you got smoked.
    Cannon_Trading likes this.
  9. Handle123


    My very long term model sees rounding top and 2 small breaks, so it went short Bonds/Hedged week and a half ago.
    Cannon_Trading likes this.
  10. ffs1001


    I closed my ZB/ZN spread - this was a buy ZN and sell ZB trade opened on 20-Aug (ZN was 131'040, ZB was 163'320 at the time) and closed today - ZN at 128'215 and ZB at 157'220.

    If all spreads went as smoothly as this one.

    I'm still holding onto the long 164-162 ZB call spread. Theta works in my favour, so no rush to close, unless the FOMC mtg next week throws a surprise.

    @Real Money , I hope you shorted ZB a couple of weeks ago.
    #10     Sep 13, 2019
    janny, bone and Cannon_Trading like this.