Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by Real Money, Sep 1, 2019.
Is this bond rally going to continue into next week? Should we be looking to get short the 30 year?
I have been short ZB for a couple of weeks now in various forms - via outrights, credit call spreads, and ZB-ZN future spread.
Let's see what next week brings.
are you talking about day trading or swing trading?
for day trading, there might be opportunities to take long and short positions within a day.
If swing trading, where is the reversal signal / pattern?
There is big difference between reversal trading and counter trend trading.
The yield on 30 year is at a near all time low. 8/28/19 is the all time low on charts I'm seeing. I was referring to position trading if low is retested next week.
Maybe for the very short term, possibly selling calls but I would not get too excited unless we break below 161.12
Do you think that Powell is done ? I don't and no serious trader that I know of thinks so either.
Hell, Draghi isn't done either and the ECB has negative rates across the curve.
I agree that bonds right now are mostly rate news and econ numbers but I wanted to share that I got a sell signal on the weekly chart last night. Will be interesting to watch....
Caution is in order with the Elliott Wave Count and other cyclical count indicators... if you used it the past eleven years with the stock market - specifically the exhaustion wave; you got smoked.
My very long term model sees rounding top and 2 small breaks, so it went short Bonds/Hedged week and a half ago.
I closed my ZB/ZN spread - this was a buy ZN and sell ZB trade opened on 20-Aug (ZN was 131'040, ZB was 163'320 at the time) and closed today - ZN at 128'215 and ZB at 157'220.
If all spreads went as smoothly as this one.
I'm still holding onto the long 164-162 ZB call spread. Theta works in my favour, so no rush to close, unless the FOMC mtg next week throws a surprise.
@Real Money , I hope you shorted ZB a couple of weeks ago.
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