Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by RedSun, May 2, 2013.
This big drop does not make sense.
are you going long?
+ BOT 1 NG JUN13 + (1) 4 + (1) 4.7 - (2) 4.35 Call Combo 0.087 USD NYMEX 15:59:02 OptTrader 9.28 null
I just outright long at $405. If it drops below $4, so be it.
Interesting. Might I ask why you are going long, beyond just that the drop does not make sense?
Also, are you saying you are not using a stop loss, e.g. if it goes below 4, then hold and pray?
Why does the drop not make sense? An increase of 43 bcf when 27 was expected? And the largest weekly increase since November? Especially after a long series of decreases. It might not make sense in the LT, but in the ST that drop was no surprise at all.
I am selling NG. realized it is a double top. I think the next stop is 3.5~3.6 the next two weeks, then it will consolidate.
sold on thursday on the big drop bar inventory data at 4.163, covered it today at 3.989. sold short a small position at the closing at 4.065, wait for next week to break down 3.977.
bought some puts of UNG. warm summer is here, there is no sense for the high price of natural gas. demand for natural gas declines. common sense.
3.98ish is 50days EMA, that is why I covered. normally it bounces. but the double top comfirmed the down side, sell pop makes sense in a down trend.
just my two cents.
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