Time to lock in 4.7% returns on your savings for 10 years?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Daal, Oct 3, 2023.

  1. BKR88

    BKR88

    I've invested in CDs for more than 20 years & never had one closed prematurely.
    Within the past 6-12 months I had a CD at one of the banks that failed but the CD was just transferred to JPM when they bought the assets from the failed bank.
    They're FDIC insured up to $250K per account holder.
     
    #21     Oct 3, 2023
    metalztrader likes this.
  2. piezoe

    piezoe

    Food for thought:
     
    #22     Oct 4, 2023
  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    I have more time now, so I'll attempt to explain my post above of Warren Mosler's interview.

    You are interested in locking in an interest rate on Treasury Notes over ten years. Your thinking makes a lot of sense to me, and of course it must be based on the expectation that rates will not go too much higher and that in the not too distant future rates will come down. What Warren has to say may bolster the chances that rates will come down before long. If he is right, then The Fed is not only likely to halt but to reverse.. The kicker is that the fed may yet continue down the same road until they are convinced they are headed in the wrong direction. I doubt Warren's guess work alone is enough to convince them to reverse. As Yogi said, "Predictions are hard, especially about the future."

    What Warren Mosler is pointing out, as he sits in shorts in St. Croix, is that it's not a given that still higher interest rates will cool the economy and lower the inflation rate. As we know, the Powell fed is wielding a tool that very much comes out of the fed's traditional tool bag for fighting inflation. Volcker made history when he took rates sky high in the 1980's to cool down red hot inflation due to steeply rising energy costs. The consequence was a deep and painful recession, but the inflation rate did come down.. Mosler is now questioning the wisdom of Volcker's action, and indeed, the entire thesis upon which Volcker acted.

    According to Mosler, as public debt to GDP ratios rise, interest rate increases cause increasingly larger deficits (in the absence of tax increases of course!). Deficits are what we in the private sector spend, save and invest. Without them their would be no money in the economy whatsoever! Rising deficits add fuel to the economy.

    Mosler's view is that the effect of rate increases on the deficit is a function of the Debt to GDP ratio. As this ratio increases, interest rate increases produce correspondingly higher and higher government costs and deficits. Accordingly the efficacy of using rate increases to fight inflation decreases as debt to GDP ratio increases... At higher debt to GDP ratios rate increases may fuel inflation!, depending on the propensity to spend of those who are the recipients of profits brought by the rate increases. A little additional consideration of this relationship will reveal positive feedback in this mechanism.

    I am certain the Fed is aware this. If the data shows that their tightening is having the desired effect they are likely to continue on the same path. However if the data shows that their tightening is a contributor to the current strong economy with record low unemployment, as Mosler seems to think is the case, then the Fed will likely halt and perhaps reverse.

    My own view is that there is likely a regime in which rate increases are counterproductive due to the mechanism Mosler has described, but in the early stages of tightening it would be difficult to tell if we are in that regime. If there is high uncertainty as to the effect of tightening, I would expect the Fed to halt, which is where we are at. If the Fed determines their rate increases have been counterproductive I would expect them to reverse course. You can take my opinion on this matter for exactly what it is worth, which is what you paid for it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2023
    #23     Oct 4, 2023
    metalztrader likes this.
  4. #24     Oct 4, 2023
  5. 2rosy

    2rosy

    CLOs are around 8 9%
     
    #25     Oct 4, 2023
    Spooz Top 2 and nitrene like this.
  6. China in trouble, Europe in trouble, most of emerging markets in trouble, countless countries with huge current account deficits and USD funding shortage.

    In one word: you will hit the jack pot with 4.7%. Above all: you will make a boat load on the appreciation of bond prices and less so on the coupon! :sneaky:
     
    #26     Oct 4, 2023
    piezoe and metalztrader like this.
  7. nitrene

    nitrene

    I found 2 CLO ETFs that have yields approaching 10+%. Both buy BBB-B rated CLO tranches.

    [based on average yield of last 4 months]
    CLOZ 10.8% (Panagram Bbb-B Clo ETF)
    JBBB 8.5% (Janus Henderson B-BBB CLO ETF)

    I think the AAA CLO ETFs get about 6-7% yield. There is also a lot of Leveraged Loan ETFs that get about 8-9% yield.
     
    #27     Oct 5, 2023
  8. birdman

    birdman

    #28     Oct 7, 2023
  9. If you shop around Canada's Oligarchy of banks, the first 6% GICs started popping up about a month ago. Only had to lock in for 1.5 years.
     
    #29     Oct 8, 2023
    NoahA likes this.
  10. But Canada is not a safe place for money.
    They're already shown that they will seize you account for political reasons, without even giving you a hearing.
     
    #30     Oct 8, 2023