Couldn't agree more Lundy. Everyday, I continue to be amazed by the market. For now, I feel more comofortable from the long side than the short.
Perception and optimism are still to positive on the long side.This entire pig has been painted with lipstick ,not just the lips.In the not to distant future we should be having a great luau.
It will be time to go short when everyone except a few weirdos agrees that the market is going up, and those few weirdos receive comments like "ok....whatever" or "I may not be as smart as you in trading, but why would I trade contra to the trend of the last two years ?" or "This is annoying and immature." Once you see a thread like that here on ET, you will still have to wait until posting to it stops for about a month or two, and then you can start shorting the market.
It may be worth considering the connection between how people feel and how markets work. Market control resides with the side that is smaller in number of participants. Thus markets are named "seller's market and buyer's market. On the other hand, the sentiment is maeasured more by the common weal of the public. There are always more hands up from those who are not, at any time, controlling the market. In a "seller's" market, there arealways more buyer's hands to be counted vis a vis snetiment. And vis a versa. The talking heads and polls takers are always missing this consideration.