The market will go higher, longer than anyone here thinks reasonable. This is because the late buyers to the rally are not reasonable. The most difficult thing to do right now is remain long, or add to longs, but that is likely the best move. I'm expecting 2 possible catalysts for the next 10% downside move: 1. A major outbreak of SARS, which could begin in the next couple months - I'll remain long US/Europe and begin going short Asian markets. 2. Next spring with continued disappointing job creation and waning consumer spending. Only time will tell ...
i'm shorting it. just because that's what i do. but lightly and carefully, and i'm looking to cover some on any pullbacks. this wants to go UP UP UP...and i want to be SHORT SHORT SHORT along with it. right now i am now at maybe 20% of my full short capacity. why fight it...i'm going to let it get stronger before i get all short.
today on the NQ. Everything looks like we have more upside coming and likleyhood is that any break is going to come later rather than sooner, maybe even as late as early next year. Flood of late stage buyers (suckers) coming in and high fliers look like they are starting a blow off phase. Breadth of market is acting right for a move up (look at the RL, this is not a move isolated to few high profile stocks which is what I would expect to see at end stage of run up). Look at the financials, I would expect them to be breaking down joining the rally if we were in end stages of run up. etc The reversal, though when it comes will likely be swift though there will likely be signs that it is coming (especially $/Euro, gold, holders like HHH &SMH, who knows what else). Eventually some news event will matter(or rather people will start to care about negative news) and the market will react and will not come back (unlike what we got with the last job report and the fact that the defict is going to $525B). As most of us feel, I am sure, we will know it when we see it. Time to stay very alert for signs of a breakdown. The VIX under 19 and the VXN at low tell me that the break will be nasty and swift when it comes though not much else. I am looking for an ND/NQ short to offer the best return primarily because I think the weak hands/late buyers will gravitate to the tech high fliers and will push it up higher and bring it down harder. In the meantime I am long Gold and will take intra day long positions with tight stops in the strongest high fliers on pull backs to ema's and pivots. It was NFLX today and may be again tomorrow as they are presenting at some conference and it seems that any news is good news on the high fliers these days (also NFLX because of the large short interest). Good fortune to all ET's.
With volatility this low it will at least take a few days for ranges to expand. What has me on my toes theese last days is the non-confirmation from the dollar and notes. Or maybe stocks are out on a trip without parental guidance. Well see how long it lasts. Ancient chartreading would say sp run lasts til 1100-1200. I added to modest longs on upside break in sp. Best Joe
Huge divergence of Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong markets today! All down following huge up move in the US. We know Singapore is down on a SARS scare but Taiwan? Hong Kong? How else can Taiwan (electronics manufacturers) be down after strong Nasdaq performance yesterday?? SARS concerns are already weighing on Asian markets looks like ... and flu season doesn't peak until February. I suspect a SARS resurgence is the only negative catalyst strong enough to derail the current bull run before the end of the year. My first short is Hong Kong ... hmmm.
It has been suggested yesterday, in one of the rooms I visited, that this bubble is fuelled partially by the approaching â9/11 sentimentâ. There could be some truth in thatâ¦
What the hell is 9/11 sentiment?? Nevermind, I don't want to know. I just sure hope whoever said that is in the market ...