Bottoming action around 100 but ... even with Chavez threatening to stop oil exports to US (bluff bluff bluff) and Ike nearby, Crude remains dead in the water, not even a slight pop up.
Here's what happens over the next 2 weeks: Oil goes down $10-15, wholesale gasoline goes up $1-1.50. Lets say 20% of US gasoline (3mb/d) is offline for 3 months... That'll enable a 90 million barrel build of crude, and likewise a 90 million barrel draw of gasoline. Maybe my prognostication might be worth coming back to in a month.
Crude will not be able to mount a decent rally until all of those Gulf Coast refineries come back "on-line" and that could take the rest of this week . . . Also, the Paralympics in Beijing end on Wednesday. Measured-move projects to $86.00
crude oil traded today below the range described by the first trading day of the year... that might signal further declines