Time to go long again, S&P target=1572

Discussion in 'Trading' started by michaelscott, Jul 28, 2007.

  1. The market is done going down for now. Too many stocks moving under their 50 day moving average. Price stopped right at a major trend line on Friday.

    After reviewing all the facts, I'll have to raise the white flag on the short side and now I'll give in to the fact that the SPX will go to 1572. At that point, I think we might have a possible turning point.

    Major bottoms have been put in any time the attached moving average chart has bottomed. It bottomed quicker then I thought.

    At 1572, I will reflect again if it is time to go short.

    Its time to buy right now and I say growth growth growth.

    You cant ignore this chart. It has predicted every major bottom since they started throwing it up in 2002. If your not out there on Monday buying, then your crazy.
  2. Mikey, I truly wish I were as market savvy and astute as you. That sure would be nice. To know definitively where markets are going and what they'll do next must be an incredible gift. It sure is something to see the confidence in your many markets predictions here.

    Just curious... did you by any chance trade thru March 2000 to March 2003? If so, how old were you then?
  3. IF the market is in the early stages of a bear decline, the charts do not reveal that as of yet.

    If this decline is just another "noise" dip in a bullish or sideways market, Mikey has a good shot at being correct about a swing low being made near present price levels.
  4. while the premise might be correct, arguing for a statistical certainty based on (as i count it from his chart)

    FIVE INSTANCES (n=5) is completely ridiculous.

    this shows a complete misunderstanding of statistics, and of technical analysis

    show me n=50, and i might be convinced.

    is the S&P "oversold" short-term by most conventional measures? of course.

    does this mean it has to go up? of course NOT

    again, the conclusion may be correct (that S&P is due for a bounce) but basing the conclusion (whether in fact right or wrong) on 5 instances of a technical indicator is ridiculous
  5. Gnome, the S&P halted (to the exact tick) on 62% retrace from March 07 lows thru July highs. Add in MA values, trend lines and prior congestion to this level as well.

    I myself expect a bounce, and will be playing it that way if/when buy signals confirm.

    A bounce to 1572 with such surety? Might as well buy the Sep SPX 1575 calls cheap right now and make incredible $$$ when that certainty plays out.

    I'll stick with intraday action myself, just don't have the clairvoyance to see long-term future with such clarity.
  6. I'm with you about not anticipating an upside price... I'm just stating my observations about (1) good chance at swing low nearby, and (2) anyone getting all beared-up in here is running on hope, not technical evidence, probabilities and logic.
  7. Mike, I'm going to have to treat this post similarly to how I treated a bullish post in another thread:
    Over the past six trading days the S&P 500 is down 5.15%. The decline in the six trading days preceding 10/19/87: -10.01%. How many stocks do you think were under their 50 day MA then? Trade as you will.
  8. The SPX 1575 call (SXM) is trading near $600 per on Friday's close. If the S&P hits 1572 by mid-August, that contract should be good for $3,000 or so.

    Cheap to play, dear to win. Dare to play?

    That's about my fill of troll milk here for the weekend. Enjoy :cool:
  9. RL8093


    I'll leave the prognostications & price targets for those much wiser. (Michael - you're predicting a higher high bounce vs a retracement....?)

    Those big red bars on record volume will likely make their way into many message boards, newspapers & backyard barbecue discussions this w/e.

    Whether we bounce Mon, Tues or Wed - I'll be watching and playing as much of this great volatility as I can.

    If the mkt keeps moving like this, I'll have to talk to the wife about postponing our Aug vacation - which, no doubt, will leave a smile on her face (not!)....

  10. Those big red volume bars may not be just the legitimate selling of regular shares, but all out shorting too. The crowd is probably shorting all they can and surely the trade will turn against them.

    In any event, there are some charts that work some of the time, but there is one chart that works all of the time. When the moving average chart bottoms, then it signals that its time to buy.

    Another factor is that the current time is always a weak period and then the market tends to ramp up into the new year.

    Another key indicator is the elitetrader factor. Seeing that almost all of the replies go against my call, Im certain that my call will probably come true. That may sound bit harsh to some, but its oh so true for the most part.

    1572 is the minimum I project and the max is 1596.

    Im looking at some calls on the SPY.
    #10     Jul 28, 2007