stupid mistake. why would I get in this argument ? After all, this thread is about long term crap. Hindsight is 20/20. talk is cheap. money talks (louder). tntneo
There was perceptible fear in the air Friday morning, so I bought the open hoping to pick a double-bottom. Unfortunately, by midday much of the fear had dissipated, and I had to sell. Judging by VIX, we may be nearing an intermediate bottom, but not there yet.
Did you mean "rising unemployment"? Could be just me, but an "upturn in unemployment" sounds a bit ambiguous. The thing is, given the exact same data two economists can (and routinely do!) make diametrically opposed forecasts for the future. Like a curve-fit trading system, econometrics does a great job of describing the past but often falls down trying to call the future.
Is unemployment "high" by historical standards (or approaching that level)? Is inflation really "high" by historical standards (or approaching that level)? Are the traditional measures of inflation and unemployment accurate since they've been changed so many times over the years and leave so many things out? (more rhetorical than anything else)
Dan: I'm certainly not trying to be ambiguous. What I am saying is that there has not been the deceleration in wage growth that one would expect after a year of disappointing (bad) payroll numbers. I'm neither an economist nor a systems guy. I'm just a trader who tries to intuitively predict what the "headlines" will be, perhaps days, weeks, or never...down the road. What I can state as fact is that the Fed Funds contract is pricing in 100 basis pts. of tightening over the next year. Given that stocks are in as much of a crisis as they were during the easing cycle, I'm led to believe that fixed income traders are concerned not about the deflationary ramifications of falling equity prices as much as they are focusing on the inflationary aspects of a lower dollar, strong gold ,crude, and grain prices that are subtly 30% off their lows. My opinion is that the Fed is boxed in. If producer prices spike, they have to tighten and risk putting stocks in a tailspin. If the Fed does not respond, stocks may still break and take the long end of the curve down with them. Just my opinion (B.S.), but it's like the old saying, you don't know until you bet.
Checking those posters that are being cosidered by others as "gems" and reading their postings. Truth of matter is that in the early days of the message boards there was far more valueable exchange of information than the mud slinging that these days happens. Every now and then you come across a real gem for keeps. Well worth the effort! Same applies to books. These days there seems to be little peer scrutiny before a book gets published but this was not the case in the days of Darvas and earlier. And one has to realise that human psychology does not change overnight, it has been the same for thousand of years and will continue to be much of the same for the foreseeable future. So a lot of the old stuff still stands. I used to think in terms of "fear and greed" then it became "fear" alone (greed is fear of mising the boat) but recently I saw on ET a far better one for the short term trading / scalping: "bait and switch". Very fundamental emotions that are been exloited by those who know how. Actually Maria said it in another posting: Dale Carnegie - How to win friends and influence people. Basically you can change public perception of the masses in 6 months or so. And this is true for trading too, profitable trading is based on the premise that people keep on making the same mistake as they always have. And I am fighting regularly from making that same mistake... Sherlock