long term predictions are no different than short term (1 min) predictions if you are using tools like fibonacci, elliot wave, trendlines etc... but if you use the bid/ask, or level 2, or even things like stoch or bbs, u probably shouldn't be looking at the long term. splitting my trading up into different time frames really helps me diversify.... Heres my forecast for a bottom to the 5th wave: it happens this month, around the 1000 level on NDX... my exact numbers are 991 and 979. Those numbers is are where I really load up my long term account.
The difference between long and short term predictions is that by the time the long term prediciton is either proved or disproved, everyone has forgotten what was predicted.
There's always this underlying assumption that the guy selling you his stock at these low low prices is a boob, and that you , the bottom fisher, knife catcher, are wise and forward looking. It works until it kills you. Just like , what's that game they play, oh yea, Russian Roulette.
I think anyone who is seriously long is seriously nuts ... If / When India and Pakistan NUKE each other, do you think the market is going to rally ? And what exactly IS the good news that is going to support anything more than a few hours/days rally ? BTW I love this market ... it fits my practical pessimistic personality ... if it goes up just short the hell out of it
wow, i just realized something.... theres a whole new batch of traders who don't know how to trade, they only know that the market always goes lower... if there is any lesson to be learned from the 90's bull market, most haven't learned it. All trends come to an end. If you can't understand what trading in a longer time frame means, you ought to not be posting in this thread, since the tittle "Time to get real long??" has to do with longer term trading. The biggest trader in the world, George Soros, trades off the big picture. So if an incy weency trader named u has a prob with traders sharing their thoughts about bigger time frames, tuf luck. And one day, you'll be replaced by the new bullish traders. Who won't learn from the bear market of the new century.
the dow is the pillar of the US' strength imo, i doubt it will collapse anytime soon. (altho one day it will i'm sure ) edit: it's a completely different beast than the nasdaq... they are both at totally different stages of a bear market. people are so used to shorting the nasdaq, because it's been going down for so long... but, imo they should be careful, and take into account longer time frames, because one day, the same forces that push the market down now, will push it up. And it won't be when everyone expects it, and i'd expect that only a handful of the current batch of traders will survive it. I'm not yellin bull market, i'm just sayin people should keep there eyes open and there nose to the wind or head to the ground. When the naz was @ 5000 it was a very good short for the big money (obviously)... now that the naz is hanging around the 1000 level, buying carries less risk for the big money. so it makes sense that the big money will be buying between 1000 and 0. this all seems unimportant to the daytrader or swingtrader, but actually, daytraders scalp the position traders, positiontraders scalp the swing traders, and swing traders scalp the long term traders, and long term traders scalp the macro economic movements. As I participate in all of these time frames except the macro economic stuff, I find it very useful to analyze what the next size up is doing.
IF....we get a reversal today, that could be the momentum low for this cycle. This is the type of fear we are looking for at this point. The price low will still be 2-4 weeks away, as I have already indicated earlier, so keep watching. Should be an interesting show! But keep the money out at this time.....no knife catching here. Good luck to all!