History shows that we don't have to do any thing. However, at this point the momentum appears very likely to carry us to or through that level. From here we're just a chip shot away. I'm sure there are lots of people who think they are. The question should be who has the cajones to jump in? Kudlow would make a lousy trader.
Oh my, there's a news flash. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=6085&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
I do not believe the September lows will be taken out this time. This is the obvious target of all, and if it is obvious it is obviously wrong! The May lows will complete the current wave 5 from earlier this year, and an intermediate rally will begin....above the September lows with many wondering why the lows of September were not surpassed. Its all setting up perfectly to make all the fund people wrong at the bottom, and the "expert timers" wrong at the bottom, caught waiting for the plunge below the September lows. The September lows will be taken out but that is down the road many months from now. This is just a few months of intermediate rally coming...be prepared. All of course imho(very h)
Notwithstanding my other thread about quitting daytrading, my long term position account is going to get some additions tomorrow. Whether we go by 9/11 low or not there is a counter trend rally coming, IMO, and it will be just as fast and furious as the others. One thing we can all agree on, every market watcher will be watching tomorrow, so much for the summer doldrums. Cheers
SEVERELY long so tomorrow will be a challenge if this thing goes south. If, on the other hand, we get a reversal rally I will make some nice MULA. Let's see how it shakes.
AH QQQs were .6 away from Sept. low. There is no way that is not going to get taken out soon. There is not much to support an intermediate term rally right now. There is much reason to beleive that were going down from here. However far down the markets go, I will watch for capitulation and reversal, 8-2 or 9-1 up down ratio on the way down and then back up,on both the A/D and A/D volume, with VIX extremes and 3 + billion on the Naz and huge on the NYSE. And I'll get woody for going long for the I-term.
Whats the hurry? You think its going to touch bottom then rocket up before you can get in? Bottomfishing is hazardous to your wealth.
I find forecasting what the market will do or won't do doesn't work for me, so I try not to have an opinion. I'm not an analyst, and I find it counterproductive. Locks me in a view (costly lesson-introduces a whole host of psychological issues). I prefer scenario building + realising where the most likely resistance/support lie in the time frame I'm looking at. If the technicals set up right at that level, and there seems to be evidence of the expected move, I take the trade. One scenario is this : NQ is almost upon Sep lows, about 23 points away. Wouldn't take very much to take it past there, maybe not today but over the next few weeks (who knows). However, ES and DJ have a ways to go before it hits sep levels, so perhaps it's likely that they may find support at that level, given NQ would have traded "below the psychological sep level". If the South Asia potential war funk dissapates, that might make things alot easier for people to start buying. Also markets don't move in straight lines (even on sep 11 when eurex was open), so even if you were dead sure the market was going one way, you could still hit your stop for many reasons. So go with the flow and forget about picking tops and bottoms would be my suggestion.