This may be all conspiracy theory but i truly believe the dip oils taken over the last month is a ploy to make our economy look better than it is for the election. Critics will site demand destruction but demand destruction was evident even when oil climbed into the 140's. The Highway Transportation agency had already hinted at that when they released average miles driven for July as being the first time since the 70s that there had been a decrease. With all this in mind I expect to see oil rise sharply after the election and I think getting long oil and short the airlines are the best play going into the fall.
Once the Paralympics are over with in Beijing, we should see more DEMAND coming out of the 5 provinces of China that have seen their industrial output shutdown.
agreed- oil to make at least a double top in my opinion. this is a great technical buying dip area, we could move rapidly higher from here. risk reward is great from here even if its going to crash its not going to do it without another big leg up first.
Or, a huge new supply magically appears. That's why we aren't building new refineries, 'cause there's not much new to refine. How do you think China is going to feel about us blockading Iran. Russia is already pretty pissed. This whole deal is starting to make me nervous. Jodi
The oil supply will be extremely tight until 2010. 2011 will be the year when production actually decreases, causing a possible SHTF scenario. Probably not in the US, but in some other countries as the price of oil shoots over $200 a barrel. Either way, high inflation and resource wars look like a certainly for the next century. After that people will just go back to riding horses and milking cows if the is no nuclear war.