The market is at very oversold levels now, on the short term. Breadth has been overwhelmingly negative. NYSE stocks over thier 10 dma is under 10% as of today's close. THe most extreme level low since the March 03 bull. NYSE stocks over thier 30 dma is at 40%. Lower than it has been since the summer. P/C ratio is at a relative extreme. VIX has shot up and way stretched. And people think Al Queda is going to blow up the world sooner than later. (whether they will or not is beside the point, my point is the terrorist fears stoking selling) I'll be standing with open arms the next 3 trading days. Give it to me baby. I'll buy it.
You may be right, though I doubt it. With all due respect, using the last year as your precedent is foolish. The rare profile we've seen since 3/03, that of a a low volitility rising bull has transitioned into a July/02 or Jan/03 type break. Yes, there will be rallies. They will be shallow and few. It takes two to make a market but I'd be cognizant that the highs we've just rejected may not be seen again for quite some time.
Definitely a good buying opportunity here. If you know how to play it This is a very high probability setup occuring on the long side. peace axeman
That's interesting. What is your evidence for the July/02 or Jan/03 type break? Both were rather different in character. Are you saying the bull move is over?
I think you have said the smartest thing in this entire thread so far. Time to get LONG AND STRONG? LONG AND STRONG WHAT? This is such a general statment.....BUY THE WHOLE $#%^ MARKET? Man i thinking ET is starting to wear and tear on my nerves....I might have to retire my ET privillages soon and leave this site to the majority of scrubs....and feel sorry for the minority.
Yea, I'll give it to ya!! You are that opinionated??? You don't trade position or size! Oversold based on what? Good luck smart guy and search the phrase "I blew up my trading account" You ever see 4 or 5 down days in a row????MMMMMM Its got to go higher
Looking at inflation, employment, earnings, commodity prices, and especially fuel prices. Looks like roses for all.
I think the Dec02/Jan 03 break was quite similar. It's hard for me also to not see some similarities between the price action in Bonds last June, this months Dollar and now stocks. All made new highs by a smidgen and then gave back months worth of work in days. Sort of like traders.
Well, I am holding out a bias for a upward punch over the next week, and I am prepared to take significant longs. I am not saying that I will do so blindly withoput triggers, but that given the recent action in the context of a bulish intermediate trend, a strong counterreaction to the recent selling is highly likely. Now wrongway, if you want to go short happy now, go ahead, but my educated guess says I'll be buying you a bus ticket home to mama and she'll sing you lullabies and salve your insolvent wounds.