Time to Fade Hysteria?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by tommo, Sep 15, 2010.

  1. tommo


    Ok, well the market isnt really hysterical at the moment in terms of price movements. But people are talking about the next leg down in the market as if it is as good as guaranteed and there are some pretty hysterical opinions.

    I can rarely recall a time when the markets did what everyone expected.

    And like the old analogy goes, when your dentist starts giving you stock tips its time to go short. Well whos to say the opposite isnt true?
    The majority of the men on the street (and a few on wall street) and preparing themselves for a doomsday scenario yet the market keeps creeping up.

    But people have been saying this is the end of the financial world as we know it for 2 years and the stock market is grinding up. I am not saying the market is "right". But since when has being "right" ever come in to it.

    People are preparing for the worst, despite what people think, lending figures are down because people are not asking for loans, people are still on high alert and dont want to commit money, whilst this is happening i cant see any major shocks.

    Wait for the people to go back into the market and get some confidence, thats when its time to bail. These forums are a fairly good gauge of what the average investor is thinking and 9/10 posts are about financial Armageddon... just a thought
  2. You will likely get flamed for this post by the perma bears who are expecting the end of the world. Do not be persuaded. This will only give credence to your thesis.
  3. Larson

    Larson Guest

    Heard this same crap in 2003, before blastoff. Everyday, my short hedges go a little lower and a little lower and a litlle lower.
  4. Marc Faber says no fall crash...

    Too many expecting it.
  5. olias


    I agree
  6. Well, my only nitpick would be that 9 out of 10 postings have always been about Armageddon around here. Other than that, correct.
  7. Who is preparing for the worst? How many people that live around you are stocking up on physical silver & gold? I bet 1 or 2 at the most, and probably not even that. In fact, I have heard some people talk about collapse, but when I say the word "fiat" they have no idea what that word means.

    And the market is not going up. The Dow has gone up 10% YTD, but gold has gone up 25% YTD http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=^DJI&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=gld So the dow is actually down when priced in gold

    Are the public buying gold? No they are selling gold to these cash for gold places. When I drive down the street, I dont see any signs that say "We sell gold" No, I see "We buy gold" If anything, the majority of people are selling gold. So if everyone is selling, you should be buying.
  8. tommo



    I agree, the economy is in a dire situation and i'm sure there are some bad times ahead. But when people are talking about stocking up on Silver and Gold because global currencies will be devalued to worthlessness, Weimar Germany style hyper inflation and financial meltdown i think it implies there are a lot of people extremely scared.

    Bond markets are inflating because people would rather get paid a guranteed 1% than take the risk of investing it into anything that has any degree of uncertainty.

    The fact gold is up 25% again only strengthens my argument people are positioning themselves for the worst.

    Im not claiming to be a George Soros, if i had 0.5% of his wealth id be very happy. But in my experience the market goes where it hurts most people. And most big moves are carried on the blood of all the people that are the wrong side of the market.

    When everyone is buying bonds, everyone is talking down the dollar it just makes me wonder where the majority of investors (generally the losers) has their money