Its likely to bounce here, but I dont think that the uptrend resumes anytime soon. I do agree that now would be terrible timing to put a short on though.
I was watching something on CNN which explained why oil was dropping. China shuttered many of the factories for the Olympics and stopped importing oil as a method of pollution control. They had stored up oil before the Olympics. So when the Olympics are over, they will continue with business as usual and oil will be consumed like before. If it pivots from here without breaking that line, then I say it revisits 147. However, its a long way down if it breaks that line.
What would break that trend? Would below 110 be considered a clear break? Wondering if demand destruction could decisively break oil in spite of peak oil fears. Demand clearly slipped as well as oil prices but can it break the trend?
Instead of trying to pick the bottom and get run over in a matter of 30 seconds, ever think of trading it? You can catch 1/2- full point moves 3X a day, every day without getting killed picking the bottom/top! It bounces a few times every day, Friday it bounced over $2 bucks @ 2pm! Is it going back to $125, perhaps, will it break $110 and go straight to $101.....WHO THE FUCK CARES....trade the momentum! el surdo
the price of oil is manipulated by the Bush/ Cheney US government. there is no real justification for oil to be at the current price. now that they are lame ducks the price will continue to go down for several reasons such as (1) all the legislation that is about to be passed to increase oil supply and(2) the economy needs a boost and lower gas prices will alleviate spending for the average consumer and businesses.
I dont want to turn this into an oil thread, it seems more about the PA which is great, but I hope you don't seriously believe that.