Sure. Buy the bike, but not the stock. Lets assume they will survive. Then these prices are really good. But the showrooms are full and nobody has any money to clear out the show rooms. And its going to be like that all thru the recetion. So your going to have dead money for a year. Might as well put it where you can make money now. Then you'll have more money in a year to go back and pick up HOG still pretty cheap. Now lets assume they are hurt bad by the recetion. Stock price plummets further. And what it they dont survive? Stock is wipped out. Recetions are a brutal thing as you see in the Auto industry. Ford and GM are so cheap I wish I could buy them. But I am no idiot and they cant be shorted below $5, so its a lousy trader too. Swallow your pride and trade the few profitable stocks in this recetion. Or just stay out all together. Nothing else makes sense.
I'm not so sure that a highly discretionary and aspirational purchase such as Harley Davison is a great long when a value staple company, as well run as McDonald's, lost 8%... ...I'm not so sure it's not wildly premature to go long HOG at any price for the near or intermediate term. Good luck, though. Honda and Toyota are taking it up the ass, and Hyundai, which was the fastest growing car company in the world, making many cars for not only developed, but developing nations, is cutting total unit production by 35% this year on a global basis.
FWIW buffett is buying hog debt http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aGU_QSAGHnI0 It seem interesting that he is in many deals but not buying the common stock often
Its no big surprize, pretty much all stocks are acting really crazy these days, and I dont mean crazy good. Stock value is not following company value, but rather market emotions. So he is investing in something he knows has real worth with a return that is negotiated before hand. I am playing around with RIMM only because its earnings are great in this environment and it is being noticed and hyped. But I wont hold it for long because the herd mentality can reverse quickly with just a little bad news, even if the news is wrong. Thats why so much money is on the sidelines. This whole banking mess has everybody really spooked.
HOG down .35 so far today. HOG -1.7% (Moody's cuts Harley-Davidson rating to A2; continues review of long- and short-term ratings for possible downgrade).