Put up a long-term(10y or more) chart of it, everytime it retraced this much it has rebounded. this business has a big moat and if you look at the earnings trend is up and up with hardly down years forward dividend yield of 2.5% and pe of 12. this is a high margin iconic company. I'm waiting for a base so I can buy some shares and hold for many years
Plenty of things have changed since September 2007 when Daal first posted about HOG. Right now HOG is trading below $10. Without doing any detailed analysis, to be HOG could be a good short, even after this morning's drop, because: (1) a Harley is a good example of discretionary retail (2) Well known problems in auto sector worldwide (3) This point needs some further investigation - might be a 'financial in drag', just like GE and GM.
I was completly wrong on HOG given that I was, at the time, still too influced about Buffett's eternal US optimism and Value at Risk ideology, thankfully this Credit Crisis has given me important lessosn which I will carry forever. I end up not buying the stock but my research was too superficial and VARish
Thanks for the reply Daal. My post was definitely not intended as a jab in your direction. I think it's likely most traders have learnt a lot about various financial markets in the past 24 months. For example I remember that I covered most of my CFC short in 2007 (or early 2008 ?) when the stock was in the high teens, I should have held for much lower prices.
Yup, HOG is not a good idea at all and even they say things are so bad they are laying off. For all we know, things wont start turning around till they go belly up. Right now consider nothing as buy and hold with lots of bad news still on the horizon. But, for the short term, follow the herd into tech stocks like APPL and RIMM with great earnings that are the most likely to lead the rally charge. But sell them regularly to take profits as you go. They are expected to go up quick, but they will come down pretty quick too.
i'm shopping for a Harley now and there are tons of repo bikes around. the show rooms around central Texas are stuffed with bikes so I'll wait until these dealers start to starve. use this as whatever indicator you want.. but I think there's a ways to go for HOG stock to recover imo
It might be a good time to start buying into HOG now seeing all the doom&gloom on ET. This thread was a good contrary indicator to short and now its a good contrary indicator to buy. If HOG can keep liquid and survive then its good to buy at these levels. Why buy these blasted stocks or invest in real estate when you can buy your dream and ride it? The Harley isnt like stocks or real estate which has no value, Harley has a certain inner value that keeps giving.