it should pop in the next two days, shorts will take their winners, I shorted 500 and just reversed, (one of my few good trades) the nymex deal is weighing on the stock too
Ugh. The stock dropped from 700 to 400 from Jan-March of this year. It retraced to 520 and formed a double top. It now has dropped below March lows. I cannot conceive how that can be considered bullish.
"My gut tells me you'll get a news release in the next few days and this thing will be up 50 points." Strikes me as wishful thinking. I've been watching the stock; I'm a bit surprised it's been hit so hard but then again, so have many financials. I'm with Pabst & Holy Grail on this one -I was thinking of starting a thread myself to see how low people think this stock will go. I'm interested in buying it myself but I'm not sure what price I would get in at. The chart definitely suggests more downside and what possible good news could they come up with? The Nymex deal is off? Would that give the stock a bid?
Yea this is definitely not a technical play (unless you consider this area support from 2.5 years ago). Especially when I bought (440, adding at 400). I see both sides of the story: pressure from potential failed NYMEX deal and CFTC regulation implying decreased futures volume. As far as this CBOE payout, I'm not sure this is the reason (since losses to the stock have exceeded 1B by many counts already). The other side: good valuation assuming volumes stay up and growth continues. After all it is a monopoly. Pressure from before on splitting the clearing business off can additionally be seen from a bullish point of view, implying that a forced spinoff of the clearing business might create a 'sum of the parts > the whole' situation.
Typo. Should read long the calendar from 7.50. I posted the fly debit instead of the calendar debit. Calendar is currently 8.00 x 9.50. Fly is 1420 x 1700. Earned 9.00 on shares.